BTC dominance decline may sustain altcoin rally
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $102,961 with a liquidation amount of $1.098 billion.
Short positions at $105,445 with a liquidation amount of $611 million.
The current BTC price: $103,831. Long-position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated, with strong liquidations around $103,000. Short-position risk is relatively controllable.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $2,460.5 with a liquidation amount of $536 million.
Short positions at $2,569.7 with a liquidation amount of $557 million.
The current ETH price: $2,525.8. Short-position liquidation intensity is high, with large liquidations near $2,570, which can serve as a key level to watch.
Total stablecoin market cap: $242.9B
The total market cap saw a slight uptick on May 12. USDT issued an additional 101 M tokens, with an 11.13 % increase on TON.
BTC market cap share: 62.99 %
TOTAL 3 market cap: $907.65 B
BTC market cap share has fallen significantly in recent days, while the TOTAL 3 market cap has risen by $46.6 B. As BTC has oscillated around $104,000, altcoins led by ETH enjoyed a broad rally and many ETH-ecosystem projects rose; there was a slight pullback today. Next, watch for rotation between sectors.
Current core miner shutdown price: $59,732
The current shutdown prices for mineable coins remain below BTC’s current price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is around $60,000, which can serve as a key level to watch.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.55
The MVRV is the ratio of the minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (the total value of all BTC at last movement). It is currently in a mildly overvalued range, warranting caution for a potential short-term peak.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 49.51
The BVIV score rose slightly on May 12, indicating increased momentum for BTC price volatility.
[Market rating]
BTC dominance has declined for the first time and entered a consolidation phase, while altcoins are enjoying a broad rally. BTC volatility is gradually increasing, presenting potential risks and opportunities ahead. Additionally, MOODENG-driven animal memes are performing very strongly; focus on the subsequent movements of PEPE, DOGE, PNUT, GOAT, HIPPO, and POPCAT. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).
[0–40 Bearish; 40–50 Cautiously Bearish; 50–70 Neutral; 70–80 Cautiously Bullish; 80–100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC has entered a sideways consolidation range, remains resilient despite expectations of a pullback. The $100,000 level is identified as the daily chart mid-axis of the latest up move, serving as a key boundary. As long as BTC stays above that level, further upside is likely. Based on a $35,500 pullback from $110,000, typical Fibonacci retracement and extension levels forecast rebounds to about $96,400, $99,300, $110,000, and $117,000. Gains above $99,300 would indicate extended wave strength, often followed by a retracement before new highs. At the same time, the ETH to BTC ratio has risen roughly 33%, boosting altcoins and reducing BTC dominance to around 63%, a drop of more than two points. Continued declines in BTC dominance may be crucial for sustaining the altcoin rally.
Macro overview
Over the weekend, US and Chinese negotiators held tariff talks, with reports that both sides would cut rates to 34% on May 12 and continue discussions through June 12, aiming for 20% or lower. That news briefly lifted Nasdaq futures and drove BTC toward $105,000. Attention now turns to China’s formal response to the talks and the US CPI release on May 13, which could spark significant volatility.
Key events
- According to Bitget market data, WOO has broken above 0.08 USDT with a 24-hour gain of 19.36%.
- Full-chain liquidity infrastructure StakeStone has formed a strategic partnership with the Trump family’s crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI), offering an all-in-one portal for USD1, covering minting, full-chain, and all-scenario integration.
- According to Bloomberg, Donald Trump has stated that an 80% tariff on China seems appropriate and that China should open its market to the US.
- This week, tokens including WBT, PYTH, and ARB will see significant unlock, with a total value of $16.728 million.
- Game operating system developer PLAYTRON has posted “$PLAY ?”, hinting that the PLAY token may soon be launched.
- Stablecoin issuer Tether has partnered with the cross-chain messaging protocol LayerZero team to launch the omnichain stablecoin USDT0, which is now listed on Hyperliquid Spot and HyperEVM.
- Resolv Foundation has announced that it has opened registration for the RESOLV airdrop.
- According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale has deposited 15 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened short positions on BTC, ETH, and SOL with 3x leverage.
- Binance will airdrop 9,873 DOOD tokens to eligible users who qualify and hold at least 168 Alpha points.
- Decentralized computing network Acurast will begin its ACU token sale on CoinList on May 16.
- Payment platform Bridge has launched a developer-specific stablecoin called USDB that is backed one-to-one by cash and BlackRock money market funds.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Binance has updated the Sonic Chain trading competition rules, will reduce the collateral ratios of several assets in its unified accounts starting May 16, added Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) and Moo Deng (MOODENG) to Binance Alpha, and continues to lead the market with its wallet accounting for 82.1% of the total transaction volume among mainstream crypto wallets.
- Bitget Onchain has listed EZ, USELESS, and BERRY and partnered strategically with Sweat Economy, the Web3 evolution of the popular fitness app Sweatcoin, to boost the movement economy in Web3, while Bitget Wallet will be the first to support the key proposal EIP 7702 in Ethereum’s latest system upgrade, Pectra, and thus lead the way in equipping traditional wallets with intelligent capabilities.
- Coinbase has launched 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading.
Industry landscape
- According to Bitcoin.com, the Belo Horizonte City Council in Brazil has passed a groundbreaking bill to make the city an innovation center for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin companies.
- Web3 consumer rewards platform T-Rex has completed a $17 million seed funding round, led by Framework Ventures.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
Long-position capital continues to expand while short-position capital worsens, and the market has entered a phase of localized FOMO.
Long-position ROE for major assets (BTC) and memecoins (PEPE, FARTCOIN, TRUMP) has risen sharply, indicating strong holding by informed investors and no large-scale profit-taking so far.
The short-position account (0xf4…d1d) has deteriorated across the board, with seven-day losses widening and strategy errors increasing (e.g., new ENA shorts lost immediately).
Some funds have trimmed positions (e.g., 0x50…db6 reducing BTC exposure), yet the long bias remains, suggesting high levels without urgent downward pressure.
Single-asset focused bets (e.g., SOL) continue to amplify gains and stand out, showing that concentrated long strategies retain short-term edge.
Summary:
There are signs of sustained long positioning, while short positions continue to face pressure.
BTC and memecoin segments remain key areas of market activity, with no clear signals of reversal yet.
Short-side exposure appears increasingly challenged, suggesting it's worth observing rather than contesting current flows.
In memecoins, any sharp position reductions at scale may offer clues about a potential shift in sentiment or momentum.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.
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