May 14, 2025

Cautious bulls watch $106K BTC breakout

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:Long positions at $102,725 with a liquidation amount of $646 million. Short positions at $104,777 with a liquidation amount of $230 million.The current BTC price: $103,463. Long-position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated around $102,700 and $101,600. Short-position risk is relatively controllable.
ETH core liquidation positions:Long positions at $2,572.7 with a liquidation amount of $774 million. Short positions at $2,721.2 with a liquidation amount of $404 million. The current ETH price: $2,638.8. Long-position liquidation intensity is high, with significant liquidation amounts near $2,570, making it a key support level to watch.
Total stablecoin market cap: $242.97 BTotal market cap saw a slight increase on May 14. USDT increased by $260.43 M, including a 5.79 % rise on BSC.
BTC market share: 62.28 %TOTAL 3 market cap: $926.42 BBTC’s market share has fluctuated around 62 % after consecutive declines. TOTAL 3 market cap saw a slight uptick again, remaining near recent highs.
Current core miner shutdown price: $59,255Shutdown prices for mineable coins are currently below BTC’s price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is around $58,000, making it a key price point to observe.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.46The MVRV is the ratio of the minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (total value of all BTC at their last movement). It is currently at a neutral-high level, indicating moderate overvaluation of BTC’s price.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 47.48The BVIV score remains at a neutral-low level on May 14, fluctuating around 47, similar to July 2024 levels, indicating low momentum for BTC volatility.

[Market rating]

BTC has oscillated around 103,000, remaining in a sideways consolidation range. However, BTC’s illiquid supply has reached an all-time high, indicating increased long-term holders and reduced selling pressure. BTC repeatedly broke above 105,000, but momentum is beginning to wane; a break above 106,000 may lead to greater pullbacks from highs. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 80 (Cautiously Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

BTC rose to a high of around 105,000 before experiencing a pullback. ETH performed strongly, with its exchange rate against BTC continuing to rebound by 40% from its bottom. It is now approaching the MA140 on the daily chart. BTC completed its adjustment to 100,713 within one day, indicating strong capital in BTC. However, as BTC rises, the probability of a future pullback increases, and the intensity of daily pullbacks may continue to decrease. The middle line for BTC remains at 103,500; above this level, it is considered strong, while below it, it is considered weak. A break below 100,000 would signal the start of a pullback for BTC. Currently, BTC's market dominance is 62.27%.

Macro overview

On May 13, the US April CPI data was released, showing an overall CPI increase of 2.3% year-on-year and a core CPI increase of 2.8% year-on-year, both marking a recent low and indicating continued easing of inflationary pressures, approaching the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Housing prices (up 4.0% year-on-year) remain the primary driver of inflation, accounting for about one-third of CPI. This reflects sustained high housing and housing costs. Energy prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month but fell significantly by 12.0% year-on-year. Tariffs effective from early April (30% on China, 10% globally) had a limited impact on April CPI, with commodity prices rising by only 0.1%. Recently, US Federal Reserve officials have indicated expectations for two rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points. The probability of maintaining rates in June is 91.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July has risen to 61.4%. The Fed typically decides to cut rates after verifying multiple instances of low inflation data, and Donald Trump has once again urged Powell to emphasize rate cuts.

Key events

According to TheBlock, US SEC has sought feedback on in-kind redemptions for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF and delayed the Solana and Dogecoin proposals.
DeFi savings protocol Sky has posted a first-quarter loss of $5 million due to a 102% increase in interest expenses for its newly launched stablecoin, Sky Dollar (USDS).
AI agent platform Virtuals Protocol has launched the VIRTUAL staking feature, with 20% of Virgen points to be distributed to veVIRTUAL holders.
According to Reuters, the State Council of China has announced adjustments to tariffs on US imports, reducing the additional tax rate from 34% to 10%.
According to GMGN market data, the Believe ecosystem saw a broad increase on May 14, with LAUNCHCOIN (formerly PASTERNAK) briefly reaching a market capitalization of $120 million.
Data from Santiment indicates that the number of XRP holders has grown by approximately 11% so far in 2025.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	LAUNCHCOIN Hot meme	LAUNCHCOIN is a cryptocurrency token associated with the Believe platform, which is a Web3-based SocialFi platform designed to simplify token creation and project crowdfunding through social interactions, especially on the X platform. It aims to disrupt traditional venture capital models. The Believe platform significantly lowers the barrier to token creation with its "one-sentence token launch" mechanism (replying to @launchacoin on X), attracting a large number of developers and speculators.	210 million
	BSCREENER Hot meme	The token creator, @nanowisp, is the founder of https://www.believescreener.com/, which provides detailed data on the current token launches and token performance on the Believe platform.	16 million
	ICM Hot meme	Internet Capital Markets is an emerging concept referring to a global, decentralized financial market built on blockchain technology, aiming to allow anyone with internet access to seamlessly participate in various capital market activities, such as asset issuance, trading, lending, and investing. This is also the core vision and development direction of the Solana blockchain, frequently mentioned by Solana's official Twitter.	15 million
	YE Hot meme	The concept related to @kanyewest, Speed Pass, currently has over 2,900 token holding addresses and an on-chain liquidity of $6 million.	90 million

Exchange updates

Uniswap has announced the launch of a new 'one-click token swap' feature on its web application.
Coinbase will launch cbADA, cbDOGE, cbLTC, and cbXRP, and has invested in the Canadian stablecoin issuer Stablecorp to promote its fiat-backed stablecoin QCAD.
Bitget has listed Coin on Believe (LAUNCHCOIN), and its Launchpool project REDACTED (RDAC) is now open for investment.
Binance Alpha has launched NAVX Token (NAVX), Scallop (SCA), and Redacted (RDAC), while Binance Wallet has listed the Privasea AI (PRAI) TGE event requiring Alpha points to participate, and Binance has launched ZKJ/USDT and SKYAI/USDT perpetual contracts.

Industry landscape

Decentralized perpetual contract exchange Perpl has raised $9.25 million in funding, led by Dragonfly, and plans to launch its testnet by the end of 2025.
Commission-free brokerage firm Robinhood will acquire the Canadian crypto trading platform WonderFi for approximately $179 million.

Emerging projects

Token	Glonk	Petunia	GOONC
Description	Originating from comedian Ricky Gervais' vague resonance tweet, combined with the popularity of his new show The Office, the community has engaged in a fierce battle over "OG legitimacy," creating a cultural conflict narrative between the original version and the imitation. The initiator is not crypto-native but carries comedic authority, driving the meme's organic viral spread. GLONK was launched on both Bonk and Pump, with the coin eventually being issued by Bonk, signaling the beginning of a competitive battle between platforms.	A community-driven meme spread on the TikTok platform emphasizes "organic growth" and draws parallels to the early $moodeng, using the slogan "Petunia is everyone" to foster a sense of collective belonging. However, it lacks a clear cultural symbol or origin story to support it.	The token developer is suspected to be an OpenAI developer, drawing significant attention from the market's users.
Price	$0.01490	$0.007116	$0.06150
Market Cap（$)	14.9 million	7.11 million	61.5 million
代币持有数	10,983	4,303	7,954

Token	UNKNOWN	ICM	MLG
Description	A meme against venture capital (VC), initiated by Believe app founder @pasternak, uses the slogan "RIP VC" to satirize traditional venture capital, resonating with the crypto community's anticipation of a decentralized capital market. The core narrative centers around the vision that "internet capital markets will replace VC," supported by the founder's project background, establishing trust.	A tweet initiated by the official Solana account, referring to "internet capital markets," hints at the shift of the crypto ecosystem toward the paradigm of internet capital markets. The core narrative is built on Solana’s legitimacy and institutional market vision, sparking community imagination with a minimalist slogan.	The narrative revolves around the revival of classic gaming culture, reinforced by MW2 remastered server operations and esports drink collaborations to strengthen player identity. It promotes an immersive nostalgic experience under the theme "gaming is life," aiming to revive the collective memory of the golden age of 2000s console gaming.
Price	$0.004955	$0.01594	$0.01561
Market Cap（$)	4.95 million	15.94 million	15.61 million
代币持有数	1,681	4,748	20,946

Hyperliquid smart money tracking

Mainstream and meme longs continue to strengthen, but divergence is widening. Short positions are deteriorating, with clear signs of exit.

Short account (0xf4…d1d) continues to incur losses, with no significant improvement, except for the successful short on XRP. Other positions, especially ENA and HYPE, are experiencing significant losses.

0xc7…5bc fully exited, with a positive seven-day return, indicating that some smart money has chosen to secure profits.

0x50…db6 continues to reduce positions for rewards, with BTC and PEPE showing increased ROE, proving the strategy’s success, especially with XRP longs turning profitable.

0x32…812 successfully reversed positions in SOL and TRUMP, but smaller coin positions like MEW, TURBO, and VINE are yielding mixed results, showing pressure on the diversified strategy.

Summary:

Mainstream and core meme positions (BTC, PEPE, TRUMP) remain in place, with moving profit-taking points to limit pullbacks from highs.

Short strategies are confined to quick trades on weaker, high-volatility tokens and do not involve mainstream assets.

Additional smart-money exits or position reductions (e.g. 0xc7…5bc) may foreshadow a shift from strength to weakness, reflecting elevated caution.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	-14,050.71 (-47.85%)	-89,634/ 127,938
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-42,047.94 (-516.64%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	153,855.87 (663.75%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	-2,142.61 (46.68%)
	ZK	-180,000	11,797.92 (228.28%)
	XRP	-5,000	2,019 (374.5%)
	ENA	-30,000	-2,392.69 (-179.14%)
	BTC	-0.1128	-1,700.8 (-680.76%)
0xc7…5bc	No position	X	X	61,732/ 0
0x50…db6	BTC	+1,122.42	4,237,916.49 (151.17%)	36,543,638/ 26,872,515
	PEPE	+3,543,943,235	22,101,048.05 (813.85%)
	XRP	+14,546,572	591,094.52 (32.31%)
0x32…812	SOL	+12,495.55	823,533.8 (230.74%)	622,266/ 376,113
	TRUMP	+23,923.5	21,577.06 (71.95%)
	MEW	+70,484,949	-895.92 (-1.63%)
	TURBO	+81,318,196	-25,737.17 (23.42%)
	VINE	+3,572,257	-10,142.99 (-20.35%)

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Pendle（Blockchain：Ethereum） ←→ Token：syrupUSDC
Project Details	The earnings from Syrup are generated by Maple's digital asset lending platform, which offers fixed-rate, over-collateralized loans to institutional borrowers.
Participation Method	Through Pendle's Zap-in feature, users can inject or deposit using syrupUSDC, with no impact on withdrawal.
Project Information	Pendle: A yield protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain that allows users to earn yield by locking up assets.
Earnings Details	Token: syrupUSDC Annualized yield: 9.03% (Subject to change, with base yield and PT yield scaled proportionally based on the underlying assets and PT in the pool)
Product Data	Token: syrupUSDC Product participation deadline: August 28, 2025 Total token deposits: $307.27M Liquidity: $13.39M

Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.

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