ETH's weakness opens cost-effective entry

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions: 

Long position at $100,318 with a liquidation amount of $1.523 billion.

Short position at $103,498 with a liquidation amount of $195 million

The current BTC price: $102,492. The long position liquidation intensity is relatively strong and concentrated, with significant liquidation around $100,000. The short position risk is relatively controllable.

ETH core liquidation positions:                                                                 

Long position at $2,162.4 with a liquidation amount of $569 million.

Short position at $2,260.2 with a liquidation amount of $309 millionThe current Ethereum price: $2,260.2. The long position liquidation intensity is high, with large liquidation amounts around $2,160. The short position risk is relatively controllable.

Total stablecoin market cap: $242.8B

The total market cap has seen a slight increase on May 9. USDT issued an additional 143.89M tokens, with a 0.22% increase on TRON and a 37.35% increase on Unichain.

BTC market cap share: 64.31%

TOTAL 3 market cap: $861.03B

BTC market cap share has decreased, while TOTAL 3 market cap has increased by $57.6 billion. With BTC price breaking through $102,000, the focus should now shift to other mainstream coins.

Current core miner shutdown price: $69,874

The current shutdown price for mining coins is below BTC's current price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is currently $60,000, which can be used as a key price level to watch.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.16

The MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The MVRV-Z score has slightly increased, with most holders in profit, indicating a mild overvaluation range.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 48.24

The BVIV score has slightly risen today, and the index is fluctuating at a low level, indicating a lower chance of significant BTC volatility.

[Market rating] 

On the morning of May 8, BTC rose to a high of $103,085, reaching a recent historical high. $100,000 is a key price support level to watch. ETH is experiencing strong upward movement, with $2,466 as the first target level to focus on. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

BTC has surpassed $100,000, reaching a new high for the current phase, peaking at around $104,300. The ETH/BTC exchange rate surged, increasing by 16% in a single day, reaching 0.02179, setting a new phase high. The recent rapid BTC breakout is mainly driven by the phase's progress in the trade war and large-scale institutional buying. ETH has been declining relative to BTC for an extended period, making ETH highly cost-effective during this rebound. The more than 20% daily surge indicates significant buying activity. However, ETH is still in the bottom range, yet to touch the daily MA140. After some consolidation, it is expected to push toward 2466 (or potentially spike directly). BTC will not consider this upward trend as finished unless it falls below 102,000 (the midpoint of the daily rise).

The core reasons for ETH's relatively weaker performance in this rally can be attributed to three main factors:

1. Lack of wealth effect and insufficient capital flow: Compared to the DeFi boom of 2020-2021, the number of wealth-effect tokens within the ETH ecosystem has decreased in this and the previous bull markets. The rise of memecoins in the SOL ecosystem has diverted funds that would otherwise flow into ETH.
2. PoS mechanism hasn’t created an effective price trend: ETH's PoS mechanism relies on high trading volumes to drive up Gas fees, which in turn reduces ETH supply through the burn mechanism, increasing expectations of price appreciation. However, due to insufficient capital inflows, trading volume has not significantly increased, Gas fees remain low, and ETH's burn rate has not accelerated, making it difficult to form a positive feedback loop.
3. ETH's price increase lacks volume support: The upward candles in ETH have been driven more by retail sentiment rather than sustained institutional buying, and the price increase lacks the volume support needed for a strong uptrend.

From a technical analysis perspective, ETH has just rebounded to break above the lower Bollinger Band. It has currently reached the short-term target of 2466, with the medium-term target around 2770. However, ETH’s rise has partially outpaced its fundamentals, and it may face risks of a pullback or consolidation. A break above the middle band at 2770 is required for ETH to potentially continue its upward momentum.

Macro overview

On May 8, the UK and the US reached a trade tariff agreement, with the UK agreeing to ease import restrictions on US food and agricultural products in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on UK car exports. On May 9, the Donald Trump administration announced plans for talks with China over the weekend, considering substantial tariff cuts. The tariff negotiations are officially starting, with multiple rounds expected and a longer timeline. Both US stocks and BTC experienced a sharp rise, and market confidence has temporarily rebounded.

Key events

• US SEC and Ripple have reached a settlement agreement, with Ripple agreeing to pay a $50 million fine to resolve a long-running lawsuit over XRP sales.
• AI agent platform Virtuals Protocol has announced that a major announcement is forthcoming.
• According to Politico, a post by Donald Trump on Truth Social supporting the inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA in the cryptocurrency strategic reserve was actually driven by the lobbyist firm Ballard Partners, without Trump's knowledge. The lobbyist involved has since been 'ousted' from the White House.
• Data from 8Marketcap, a comprehensive platform that ranks the world's top assets by market capitalization, shows that Bitcoin's market value is currently $1.986 trillion, rising one place to sixth in the global asset rankings, surpassing Alphabet (Google).
• According to Reuters, Donald Trump has unveiled the framework for a trade agreement with the UK that will reduce non-tariff barriers to US goods.
• According to PANews, Hester Peirce, Commissioner of the US SEC, has disclosed that the SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group is studying a potential registration exemption plan to allow companies to issue, trade, and settle securities through distributed ledger technology (DLT). 
• Decentralized social protocol Farcaster has announced that it has distributed Monad test network airdrops to over 75000 accounts.
• Arbitrum DAO, the decentralized governance organization behind the Arbitrum L2 scaling solution for Ethereum, has approved the use of approximately $11.6 million ARB to invest in tokenized US Treasury bonds.
• Strategy CEO Phong Le has announced at the Strategy World 25 Summit that Strategy will release and open-source a BTC standard model, with companies like Metaplanet and KULR as early adopters.
• According to Bloomberg, Commission-free brokerage firm Robinhood is planning to develop a blockchain platform to support European retail traders in trading tokenized US stocks.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	POPE267 Hot meme	"POPE267" is a meme based on the theme of the Pope, with the number "267" referring to the 267th Pope in Catholic history. The latest Pope elected is Robert Francis Prevost, born in Chicago, USA, aged 69, with Peruvian citizenship. He has worked as a missionary in Peru for a long time and was appointed as the head of the Vatican’s Department of Bishops in 2023.	16.7 million
	Hot Cat Hot meme	The IP image is a cat, which is the antonym of HOT DOG. It has garnered some attention within the community, with 6,100 token holders and a 24-hour trading volume of $21 million.	13 million
	BM AI concept	BlockMind is a decentralized AI memory layer based on the Memory Fabric Protocol (MFP). BM transforms fragmented, isolated AI interactions into modular memory blocks that can be verified, owned, and interoperated across agents.	10.7 million

Exchange updates

• WOO X has launched SXT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 10x leverage.
• Coinbase International will launch SXT/USDT perpetual contracts on May 15.
• Binance Alpha has listed Gorilla (GORILLA) and Space and Time (SXT), while Binance has added Space and Time (SXT) across Earn, Buy Crypto, Convert, Margin & Futures, and Binance Wallet has launched the Sonic Chain trading competition on Binance Alpha, offering a reward equivalent to $2.2 million. Additionally, Binance's May reserve report shows that, aside from BTC and stablecoins, the reserves of other assets have seen little to no increase and may have even decreased.
• Bitget will list REDACTED (RDAC) on May 13, and along with Avalanche, will jointly invest $10 million to promote the development of the crypto ecosystem in India, with a focus on advancing grassroots technology education.
• Bybit has listed Space and Time (SXT).

Industry landscape

• US Senate's vote on the crypto regulation bill, the GENIUS Act, failed as Democrats opposed it, arguing that the bill lacked stronger protections and raised concerns over Donald Trump's cryptocurrency dealings.
• According to its interpretive letter, US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has clarified that banks have the right to engage in crypto asset custody and execution services.
• EVM-compatible L1 blockchain platform Sonic Labs has completed a $10 million Series S strategic funding round, led by Galaxy.

Emerging projects

Token	fog	GIGANT	titcoin
Description	A community-driven token blending the classic Pepe meme with the emerging cultural symbol Mog, expanding its appeal in the Middle East by leveraging Dubai's cultural symbols. The core narrative focuses on the visual fusion of "frog + cat" and community consensus-building.	An anonymous developer unveils the dark side of the Web3 industry through crypto art, creating "GIGANT" as a symbol of resistance, using blockchain’s immutable nature to convey "truth." The core narrative includes a conspiracy theory framework (blank category/13th verifier), developer mysticism (no identity/self-destruct mechanism), and community movement attributes (burning tokens/collective payments for homage).	The name "Titcoin" carries a clear double entendre, with "Tit" being a slang term for breasts in English, combined with "coin" to create a humorous and provocative brand image. Titcoin claims its mission is "female empowerment" and "celebrating the beauty of the female body," by inviting internationally renowned influencers with attractive appearances and physiques to promote it (such as posting photos or videos), reinforcing its association with a sexy image.
Price	$0.002771	$0.001444	$0.04881
Market Cap（$)	2.77 million	1.44 million	48.81 million
Token Holders	2,590	2,735	21,167

Token	GLORIA	CHILLHOUSE	DUPE
Description	Gloria is an AI-driven data platform offering real-time, highly curated, customizable news data. Developed by Crypto Briefing, a leading independent news and media company that has been reporting on the crypto space since 2017. Gloria’s main goal is to provide ultra-low latency crypto news materials to AI agents, traders, and other platforms that require high-fidelity signals to make effective trading and investment decisions.	A token that integrates Chillguy's IP image with the popular meme HOUSE concept. Its unique positioning has attracted significant attention from a large number of users.	Dup is a killer app for furniture searching, where users can log in while purchasing furniture to find the best price for any item. The company's CEO @dupedotcom launched the token DUPE and shared it on the official Twitter, generating market attention.
Price	$0.005559	$0.00386	$0.004269
Market Cap（$)	5.55 million	3.86 million	4.26 million
Token Holders	1,632	4,198	2,247

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

Bullish surge, short funds nearly collapsing, market entering FOMO acceleration phase.

The meme + BTC long accounts led by 0x50…db6 have doubled their ROE, with TRUMP, PEPE, and FARTCOIN all active. The main capital holders' positions have not decreased, indicating no clear signs of a market retreat.

0xc7…5bc has tactically reduced BTC positions, but the seven-day profits are still rising, suggesting risk management adjustments but no full exit.

0xf4…d1d has been fully countered, with short account ROE falling or turning negative, though new ZK long positions have helped, but the overall account is in a high-risk zone.

0x32…812's SOL single-asset strategy continues to expand, indicating that high-concentration strategies are still viable and suitable for chasing strong coins.

Market attention remains on mainstream coins like BTC and trending memecoins. Following strong gains, there may be increased volatility due to profit-taking.

With this in mind, timing new entries may require a more cautious approach. Currently, short positions seem to have limited effectiveness outside of highly volatile, short-term trades, which can carry elevated risk and may not suit all strategies.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	-4,732 (-16.11%)	-29,881/ 165,708
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-43,063.71 (-529.12%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	166,324 (717.54%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	2,971.45 (64.74%)
	ZK	+180,000	13,771.26 (266.46%)
	BTC	-0.1128	-1,576.38 (-630.96%)
0xc7…5bc	BTC	+15.1995	196,906.21 (216.91%)	72,394/ 196,906
0x50…db6	BTC	+886.1985	4,594,985.76 (351.81%)	18,844,372/ 27,239,381
	PEPE	+4,307,272,230	13,943,877.52 (422.47%)
	FARTCOIN	+11,696,825	3,301,639.19 (151.17%)
	TRUMP	+1,264,054	5,188,675.01 (425.49%)
0x32…812	SOL	+17,563.5	849,654.8 (169.36%)	194,792/ 849,654

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Superform + Pendle（Blockchain：Ethereum） ←→ Token：USDC
Participation Method	First, deposit USDC into the SUPERUSDC vault using the EARN feature on Superform to receive SuperUSDC. Then, use the Zap-in feature on the Pendle platform to participate in PT SuperUSDC with SuperUSDC. Withdrawal is unaffected.
Project Information	Superform: A cross-chain yield marketplace. This protocol aggregates vaults, routes assets, and executes transactions on EVM networks. Pendle: A yield protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain that allows users to lock assets and earn yield.
Earnings Details	Currency: USDC APY: 15.38% [Superform’s SUPERUSDC vault APY 7.45% + Pendle LP APY up to 7.93%] Superform yield details: APY is 7.45%, subject to change. Algorithm: Base yield rate USDC 5.30% + MORPHO 0.01% + SYRUP 0.01% + USDC 0.05% + REUL 1.99% + 20x Superform Points. (Yield tokens are distributed monthly.) Pendle yield details: LP APY up to 7.93%, subject to change. The base yield and PT yield are scaled according to the proportion of base assets and PT in the pool. Algorithm: Base yield 4.342% + PT yield (fixed annual rate) USDC 1.205% + Pendle LP yield 2.383% [LP SuperUSDC 0.403% + Pendle (platform incentives) 1.98%] + 50x Superform Points.
Product Data	Superform - SUPERUSDC vault Token: USDC Total deposits: $51.66M Pendle-SuperUSDC Token: SuperUSDC Participation deadline: July 31, 2025 Total deposits: $9.35M (SuperUSDC $7.95M + PT SuperUSDC $1.40M)
Notes	MORPHO: Platform token for the decentralized lending protocol Morpho. SYRUP: Platform token for the institutional DeFi lending protocol Syrup. Note: Users who deposit funds into the Superform vault will receive a Super version of the token from the source chain as a deposit receipt. Details of Superform Points utility are currently unavailable.

Risk: The SuperUSDC pool on Pendle has a relatively small volume, and some yield tokens on Superform may experience price fluctuations, which could affect returns. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.

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