ETH's weakness opens cost-effective entry
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long position at $100,318 with a liquidation amount of $1.523 billion.
Short position at $103,498 with a liquidation amount of $195 million
The current BTC price: $102,492. The long position liquidation intensity is relatively strong and concentrated, with significant liquidation around $100,000. The short position risk is relatively controllable.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long position at $2,162.4 with a liquidation amount of $569 million.
Short position at $2,260.2 with a liquidation amount of $309 millionThe current Ethereum price: $2,260.2. The long position liquidation intensity is high, with large liquidation amounts around $2,160. The short position risk is relatively controllable.
Total stablecoin market cap: $242.8B
The total market cap has seen a slight increase on May 9. USDT issued an additional 143.89M tokens, with a 0.22% increase on TRON and a 37.35% increase on Unichain.
BTC market cap share: 64.31%
TOTAL 3 market cap: $861.03B
BTC market cap share has decreased, while TOTAL 3 market cap has increased by $57.6 billion. With BTC price breaking through $102,000, the focus should now shift to other mainstream coins.
Current core miner shutdown price: $69,874
The current shutdown price for mining coins is below BTC's current price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is currently $60,000, which can be used as a key price level to watch.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.16
The MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The MVRV-Z score has slightly increased, with most holders in profit, indicating a mild overvaluation range.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 48.24
The BVIV score has slightly risen today, and the index is fluctuating at a low level, indicating a lower chance of significant BTC volatility.
[Market rating]
On the morning of May 8, BTC rose to a high of $103,085, reaching a recent historical high. $100,000 is a key price support level to watch. ETH is experiencing strong upward movement, with $2,466 as the first target level to focus on. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC has surpassed $100,000, reaching a new high for the current phase, peaking at around $104,300. The ETH/BTC exchange rate surged, increasing by 16% in a single day, reaching 0.02179, setting a new phase high. The recent rapid BTC breakout is mainly driven by the phase's progress in the trade war and large-scale institutional buying. ETH has been declining relative to BTC for an extended period, making ETH highly cost-effective during this rebound. The more than 20% daily surge indicates significant buying activity. However, ETH is still in the bottom range, yet to touch the daily MA140. After some consolidation, it is expected to push toward 2466 (or potentially spike directly). BTC will not consider this upward trend as finished unless it falls below 102,000 (the midpoint of the daily rise).
The core reasons for ETH's relatively weaker performance in this rally can be attributed to three main factors:
- Lack of wealth effect and insufficient capital flow: Compared to the DeFi boom of 2020-2021, the number of wealth-effect tokens within the ETH ecosystem has decreased in this and the previous bull markets. The rise of memecoins in the SOL ecosystem has diverted funds that would otherwise flow into ETH.
- PoS mechanism hasn’t created an effective price trend: ETH's PoS mechanism relies on high trading volumes to drive up Gas fees, which in turn reduces ETH supply through the burn mechanism, increasing expectations of price appreciation. However, due to insufficient capital inflows, trading volume has not significantly increased, Gas fees remain low, and ETH's burn rate has not accelerated, making it difficult to form a positive feedback loop.
- ETH's price increase lacks volume support: The upward candles in ETH have been driven more by retail sentiment rather than sustained institutional buying, and the price increase lacks the volume support needed for a strong uptrend.
From a technical analysis perspective, ETH has just rebounded to break above the lower Bollinger Band. It has currently reached the short-term target of 2466, with the medium-term target around 2770. However, ETH’s rise has partially outpaced its fundamentals, and it may face risks of a pullback or consolidation. A break above the middle band at 2770 is required for ETH to potentially continue its upward momentum.
Macro overview
On May 8, the UK and the US reached a trade tariff agreement, with the UK agreeing to ease import restrictions on US food and agricultural products in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on UK car exports. On May 9, the Donald Trump administration announced plans for talks with China over the weekend, considering substantial tariff cuts. The tariff negotiations are officially starting, with multiple rounds expected and a longer timeline. Both US stocks and BTC experienced a sharp rise, and market confidence has temporarily rebounded.
Key events
- US SEC and Ripple have reached a settlement agreement, with Ripple agreeing to pay a $50 million fine to resolve a long-running lawsuit over XRP sales.
- AI agent platform Virtuals Protocol has announced that a major announcement is forthcoming.
- According to Politico, a post by Donald Trump on Truth Social supporting the inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA in the cryptocurrency strategic reserve was actually driven by the lobbyist firm Ballard Partners, without Trump's knowledge. The lobbyist involved has since been 'ousted' from the White House.
- Data from 8Marketcap, a comprehensive platform that ranks the world's top assets by market capitalization, shows that Bitcoin's market value is currently $1.986 trillion, rising one place to sixth in the global asset rankings, surpassing Alphabet (Google).
- According to Reuters, Donald Trump has unveiled the framework for a trade agreement with the UK that will reduce non-tariff barriers to US goods.
- According to PANews, Hester Peirce, Commissioner of the US SEC, has disclosed that the SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group is studying a potential registration exemption plan to allow companies to issue, trade, and settle securities through distributed ledger technology (DLT).
- Decentralized social protocol Farcaster has announced that it has distributed Monad test network airdrops to over 75000 accounts.
- Arbitrum DAO, the decentralized governance organization behind the Arbitrum L2 scaling solution for Ethereum, has approved the use of approximately $11.6 million ARB to invest in tokenized US Treasury bonds.
- Strategy CEO Phong Le has announced at the Strategy World 25 Summit that Strategy will release and open-source a BTC standard model, with companies like Metaplanet and KULR as early adopters.
- According to Bloomberg, Commission-free brokerage firm Robinhood is planning to develop a blockchain platform to support European retail traders in trading tokenized US stocks.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- WOO X has launched SXT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 10x leverage.
- Coinbase International will launch SXT/USDT perpetual contracts on May 15.
- Binance Alpha has listed Gorilla (GORILLA) and Space and Time (SXT), while Binance has added Space and Time (SXT) across Earn, Buy Crypto, Convert, Margin & Futures, and Binance Wallet has launched the Sonic Chain trading competition on Binance Alpha, offering a reward equivalent to $2.2 million. Additionally, Binance's May reserve report shows that, aside from BTC and stablecoins, the reserves of other assets have seen little to no increase and may have even decreased.
- Bitget will list REDACTED (RDAC) on May 13, and along with Avalanche, will jointly invest $10 million to promote the development of the crypto ecosystem in India, with a focus on advancing grassroots technology education.
- Bybit has listed Space and Time (SXT).
Industry landscape
- US Senate's vote on the crypto regulation bill, the GENIUS Act, failed as Democrats opposed it, arguing that the bill lacked stronger protections and raised concerns over Donald Trump's cryptocurrency dealings.
- According to its interpretive letter, US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has clarified that banks have the right to engage in crypto asset custody and execution services.
- EVM-compatible L1 blockchain platform Sonic Labs has completed a $10 million Series S strategic funding round, led by Galaxy.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
Bullish surge, short funds nearly collapsing, market entering FOMO acceleration phase.
The meme + BTC long accounts led by 0x50…db6 have doubled their ROE, with TRUMP, PEPE, and FARTCOIN all active. The main capital holders' positions have not decreased, indicating no clear signs of a market retreat.
0xc7…5bc has tactically reduced BTC positions, but the seven-day profits are still rising, suggesting risk management adjustments but no full exit.
0xf4…d1d has been fully countered, with short account ROE falling or turning negative, though new ZK long positions have helped, but the overall account is in a high-risk zone.
0x32…812's SOL single-asset strategy continues to expand, indicating that high-concentration strategies are still viable and suitable for chasing strong coins.
Market attention remains on mainstream coins like BTC and trending memecoins. Following strong gains, there may be increased volatility due to profit-taking.
With this in mind, timing new entries may require a more cautious approach. Currently, short positions seem to have limited effectiveness outside of highly volatile, short-term trades, which can carry elevated risk and may not suit all strategies.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: The SuperUSDC pool on Pendle has a relatively small volume, and some yield tokens on Superform may experience price fluctuations, which could affect returns. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.
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