Oct 3, 2024

WOO X Prediction Market: 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections

Token Mechanics

Wintermute launched OutcomeMarket to address existing prediction market challenges, such as high fees and regulatory issues, by offering a permissionless platform for users to speculate on events like the 2024 US Presidential election.
$TRUMPWIN and $HARRISWIN tokens are minted via the OutcomeMarket smart contract from Wintermute.
The OutcomeMarket smart contract generates these tokens and retains and holds the deposited USDC until the event concludes. After the event, in this case, the 2024 U.S. Election, If Harris or Trump won the elections, each token could be redeemed for 1 USDC. In the unlikely scenario where neither candidate wins, each token would be redeemable for half its original value, or 0.5 USDC.
The contracts have been audited by both Hexens and Cyfrin.

Event Mechanics

Users can trade the prediction tokens ($HARRISWIN or $TRUMWIN) representing the potential outcomes of the 2024 US election, from the listing date until the official results are announced.
There will be 2 pairs of tokens on the WOO X’s Prediction Market, the $HARRISWIN/USDT and $TRUMPWIN/USDT.
These 2 tokens will be listed under the WOO X Prediction Market tab.
The value of each token will be the prediction market’s perceived probability of the occurrence of a particular event. E.g. if the probability of Harris winning is 0.6, the HARRISWIN token will be 0.60 USDT.
The value of each token will range from $0 to $1.00.
Users can transfer the $HARRISWIN and $TRUMPWIN tokens between sub-accounts and vaults like any other token. However, the $HARRISWIN and $TRUMPWIN prediction tokens cannot be used as collateral, and cannot be borrowed or shorted.
$HARRISWIN and $TRUMPWIN Trading Period:
- WOO X has full discretion to determine and change the prediction tokens trading period and close its trading function without prior notice to the users.

Outcome and Settlement

The outcome of this event will be determined and declared by Chaos Lab. For more information, please refer to Chaos Lab Edge Proof Oracle for Determining the 2024 U.S. Election Winner.

The settlement of this event will be conducted by Wintemute and OutcomeMarket smart contracts. WOO X will assist in collecting the winning prediction tokens for redemption and distributing the equivalent USDC amount to WOO X users. For more information, please refer to Wintermute’s OutcomeMarket FAQ.

Prediction Markets

▶ WOO X Prediction Markets

What are WOO X Prediction Markets?

WOO X Prediction Markets is a marketplace that allows users to engage in speculative activities about the anticipated outcomes of future events.

Periodically, WOO X will introduce prediction tokens representing two possible outcomes of a future event, ranging from politics, finance, sports, and more. The valuation of each token is denominated between 0 USDT and 1 USDT reflecting the marketplace's perception of the event's likelihood.

Users will be able to trade these 2 prediction tokens within the prediction period to speculate on the outcome of the event. Upon the conclusion of the event, an airdrop will occur to distribute the winnings to users who predicted correctly.

Accessing Prediction Markets

Users can access the Prediction Market by choosing the "Prediction" tab in the "Trade" options.

Alternatively, users can select "Prediction" in their "Watchlist" widget on the Trading page.

Please note that prediction markets' listings will be available for a period based on the event or campaign. Only active pairs are displayed.

How does Prediction Markets work?

Let's take a sporting event as an example.

There are two teams, Team A and Team B and one of these teams will win the sporting event, ending on November 30th. In this case, there will be two prediction tokens listed in the marketplace: AWIN/USDT and BWIN/USDT.

If the market price of token AWIN is 0.30 USDT and the price of token BWIN is 0.70 USDT, then the market believes the likelihood of Team A winning is approximately 30% and Team B winning is approximately 70%. Users can participate by trading token AWIN and/or token BWIN at any point before November 30th.

If Team A wins at the end of the event, an airdrop of USDC equivalent to the AWIN token will be sent to users who have the winning token. For example, a user who bought 300 AWIN tokens will be airdropped 300 USDC. Users who bought BWIN tokens will not receive anything.

After the event, tokens AWIN and BWIN will have zero value and will remain in users’ wallets as a commemorative token. Achievement badges based on event outcome and user participation will also be given out.

This blog provides a general overview of prediction markets. Specific event details may vary. We strongly recommend users consult our FAQ, related blog posts, and event-specific information for comprehensive details before participating.

▶ FAQ

Can I trade prediction tokens?

Eligible users can buy and sell the prediction tokens as they see fit during the prediction period. For a list of eligible users, please refer to FAQ #10.

Can I deposit/withdraw the prediction tokens?

Deposit/Withdrawal of prediction tokens availability depends on each event.

Can I transfer the prediction tokens to sub-accounts/vaults?

Users can transfer prediction tokens between sub-accounts and vaults.

Can I use the prediction tokens as collateral?

Prediction tokens cannot be used as collateral, and cannot be borrowed or shorted.

What is the minimum/maximum amount of Prediction tokens that can be bought?

The minimum amount is 1 token and the maximum amount is 100,000 tokens per order. WOO X reserves the right to adjust the minimum/maximum amount without prior notice.

Are there any trading fees?

WOO X will be entitled to all trading fees derived from the trading of the tokens in either case. Please refer to Spot-Margin Trading Fees for more details. WOO X reserves the right to move the tokens to any other fee structure without prior notice.

When will the winnings be distributed?

Within 14 working days after the event concludes, an airdrop of USDC will be conducted for users who hold the winning Prediction token with a 1-to-1 ratio.

How do I view previous participations?

Please refer to your account Orders for the detailed history. Also, users can check their participation badge for previous events.

Will prediction tokens have any value after the prediction period ends?

Prediction tokens will have no value after the prediction period ends.

Is Prediction Markets available to all users?

Users from Unsupported Jurisdiction as listed in the WOO X Terms of Service or any of the following countries are not eligible to participate in Prediction Markets: Afghanistan, Canada, China, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Hong Kong, Iran, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, North Korea, Poland, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Seychelles, Taiwan, the United States and its territories, and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

If you have any other questions, kindly contact our customer support by submitting a ticket under “Events.”

▶Terms and Conditions

By using this Service, users are bound to and must abide by the Terms and Conditions for Prediction Market (“Terms”). Besides the Terms provided herein, all Users must abide by the WOO X Terms of Service. In addition, users should carefully read and fully understand all the guidelines, instructions, announcements, information, tutorials and FAQ of Prediction Market. This includes but is not limited to, both general and event-specific information (collectively referred to as “WOO Prediction Market Rules” or “the Rules”).
Users must complete and pass the KYC requirements the same as WOO X to be qualified to trade the Prediction Market Token (“Token”).
The Token will allow users to buy and sell Tokens representing the potential outcomes of future events. The value of the Token will be the perceived probability of the occurrence of a particular event (“Event”). To the extent as permitted by laws, these Events can range from, but are not limited to, the outcome of an election, popular sports events, or any other predictable events that are legally allowed.
The Token reflects the live implied probability of an event taking place within a certain time period and may be withdrawn or deposited (depending on each Event).
WOO X may impose a limitation on the maximum amount for each Token to be bought by each account (inclusive of the sub-accounts) and such limitation may be updated or adjusted from time to time.
Settlement:
1. When each Event closes, each Token will be either worth 1 USDC if the implied outcome reflected by the Token happens, or 0 USDC if the implied outcome reflected by the Token did not happen.
2. When WOO X decides in its sole discretion that the possibility of such an Event happening is reasonably close to zero or very low in the foreseeable future, it will be considered that none of the implied outcomes of each Token happens, and WOO X will be entitled to all of the trading fees derived from the Tokens and also the Tokens of that specific Market. All users will not be refunded based on their respective prediction token holdings at settlement time, and the associated cost such as transaction fees when they purchased the respective tokens.
3. For tokens controlled by smart contracts or third parties, the settlement process will be executed automatically based on the pre-defined conditions in the smart contract. The outcome will be determined by the oracle(s) specified in the smart contract. WOO X is not responsible for any outcome, settlement, execution, or distributions determined by smart contracts. This includes, but is not limited to: the accuracy or timeliness of data provided by oracles, the execution of smart contract logic, any errors, malfunctions, or unexpected behaviors in smart contracts or oracle systems, and any financial losses incurred as a result of smart contract or oracle operations
4. When the outcome of any Event is such that the FOMC gets postponed, it will be also considered that none of the users is right about the outcome, and WOO X will be entitled to all of the trading fees derived from the Tokens and the Tokens of that specific Market. All users will not be refunded based on their respective prediction token holdings at settlement time, and the associated cost such as transaction fees when they purchased the respective tokens.
WOO X has full discretion to determine the Token trading period and the Company may close its trading function without further notice to the users.
Trading of Tokens will be subject to trading fees as detailed in each trading page.
Users shall represent to WOO X that, by trading the Tokens on WOO X, he is not (a) prohibited by or in violation of any domestic or foreign laws or regulations of any regulatory body that may have jurisdiction over himself or WOO X, or (b) contributing to or facilitating any illegal activity.
If the users are from the Unsupported Jurisdiction as listed in the WOO X Terms of Service or any of the following countries, the users are not eligible to trade the Tokens: Afghanistan, Canada, China, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Hong Kong, Iran, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, North Korea, Poland, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Seychelles, Taiwan, the United States and its territories, and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Users shall be solely responsible for any tax duty incurred from the rewards received (if applicable).
WOO X reserves the right to disqualify any users if he/she engages in any inappropriate, dishonest, or abusive activities during the event, including but not limited to wash trading, volume faking, participation in the competition with multiple accounts, market manipulation or matched trading activities.
WOO X may apply changes in any way, replace, or discontinue listing (temporarily or permanently) any of the Tokens at any time in its sole discretion.
WOO X reserves the right to modify the Terms without notifying the Users in advance.
WOO X reserves the right to the final interpretation of these Terms. If you have any questions, please contact our customer service.
WOO X will not be responsible or liable for any losses (including, without limitation, any direct or indirect damages for loss of profits) resulting or arising directly or indirectly from your trading of Tokens or use of our service.
Users agree to indemnify and hold harmless WOO X and its affiliates from any claims, damages, losses, or liabilities arising from or related to their accessing Prediction Markets or transactions of Prediction Market tokens.

disclaimer

The content above is neither a recommendation for investment and trading strategies nor does it constitute an investment offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any product or service. The content is for informational sharing purposes only. Anyone who makes or changes the investment decision based on the content shall undertake the result or loss by himself/herself. WOO X’s Terms of Service restrict usage for US persons and persons from select other jurisdictions to trade. We recommend reviewing the full Terms of Service to understand any restrictions that may apply to you.

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We strongly recommend that you seek independent advice from a qualified professional before making any investment or financial decisions related to cryptocurrencies or staking. We shall in NO case be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information contained in this article.