Traders could consider reducing long positions

Mainstream data observations

1. BTC core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $84,163 with a liquidation amount of $537 million;Short positions: Liquidation price at $85,923 with a liquidation amount of $616 million.BTC's price is $84,578.43. Comparatively, long positions are in a more dangerous zone and have a larger liquidation amount, making this a key price level. If BTC’s price drops near $84,163, traders could consider reducing long positions or be alert to further downside risks.

2. ETH core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,868.1 with a liquidation amount of $104 million;Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,898.1 with a liquidation amount of $74.31 million.The current ETH price is $1,880.4. Given that the current price is close to the liquidation price for longs, traders may consider shorting if the price falls below $1,868.1, with a stop-loss set above $1,898.1 to manage the risk of a rebound. If the price stabilizes above $1,898.1, the market may enter a bullish trend, and traders might consider increasing long positions.

3. Total stablecoin market cap: $234.48BThe total market cap shows no significant change. Yesterday, the USDC Treasury minted 250 million new USDC on the Solana chain, and today, 60 million USDC were burned on the Ethereum chain. This indicates that there is a considerable latent demand for funds on Solana. It is advisable to monitor DeFi and other innovative projects on the Solana chain for potential investment opportunities.
4. BTC market cap share: 61.41%TOTAL 3 Market Cap: $774.46B (24h change: -1.14%)This suggests that the market currently holds a high level of recognition and trust in BTC, while the TOTAL 3 index has slightly declined with no clear trend emerging.
5. Current miner breakeven price: $53,795.08However, nearly half of miners have shutdown prices above the current BTC price, with the Antminer S19XP’s shutdown price at $77,497.35. Considering other data indicators, the possibility of a significant drop in BTC is relatively low, thus the likelihood of large-scale miner shutdowns is also small.
6. Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.83The MVRV ratio is the quotient of the current market cap (minimum market value) over the realized value (the sum of the value of all BTC at their last movement). It has been oscillating at a relatively low level recently, possibly due to the anticipated announcement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump, causing a slight rebound in the index.
7. Bitcoin BVIV score: 51.68Previously, from February 3, 2024, to March 11, 2024, the BVIV score surged by 96.52%, during which BTC’s price increased from $43,193 to $72,702, marking a 68.32% rise and a strong upward trend. As the tariff policy announcement approaches, the current BVIV has slightly declined. It is important to monitor the BVIV trend after the tariff policy is implemented to further analyze the upward or downward trend.

[Market rating]On April 1, after learning that Donald Trump would announce a reciprocal tariff policy on April 2, the market experienced a brief rebound, and the BVIV index continued to decline. In the short term, BTC's potential volatility is expected to decrease, and further decisions will be made in light of the upcoming tariff announcement. If the tariff policy turns out to be mild, the market may witness a significant rebound. Considering other market factors, the current bull/bear sentiment score is 65 (cautiously bullish, pending the implementation of the tariff policy).

[Below 50: Bearish; 60-80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]

Market overview

US stocks opened lower but recovered throughout the day, driving BTC to continuously break higher, reaching a peak of $85,595. With Donald Trump's tariff policy nearing implementation, market investors are betting that following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, US stocks will rebound. In the near term, BTC's trend is completely influenced by tariffs and US stocks. It is expected that after the tariff policy is executed, the market will gradually return to normal; however, to break free from the downward trend below $80,000, BTC needs to push upward to $92,000.

USD Index: The DEA line of the USD Index has risen above the zero line, but the convergence of the differential line indicates that upward momentum may be weakening. Historically, the US dollar tends to perform strongly in the first quarter, but there is a high probability of a pullback in April. Both MACD and RSI indicators show a slowdown in the upward momentum of the US dollar, suggesting that it is likely to adjust after the tariff policy is announced. Meanwhile, risk assets such as US stocks and BTC may see a rebound.

US Federal Reserve: According to the latest CME Federal Reserve Watch data, the probability of holding rates steady in May is 91.8%, with an 8.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For June, the probability of holding rates steady is 21.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 72.5% and a 50 basis point cut at 6.3%. Goldman Sachs' latest forecast predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times this year, in July, September, and November. The uncertainty caused by the tariff policy is expected to lead to a slowdown in consumer spending and a contraction in business investment, which will have a deep impact on the US economy. It is anticipated that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June-July, and the probability of three rate cuts this year continues to increase. The market reaction after the tariff policy takes effect on April 2 will continue to be closely monitored

Key events

• Asset manager VanEck has registered a BNB ETF trust in US Delaware, indicating that the company may launch BNB-based investment products in the US.
• Domin Network, an on-chain commercial data infrastructure, is preparing for its Token Generation Event (TGE), with the $DOMIN token soon to be issued on the Kaia chain.
• USDC issuer Circle has filed an S-1 application with the US SEC to conduct an initial public offering (IPO), planning to list its Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “CRCL.”
• According to Bloomberg, the Bitcoin mining company American Bitcoin, backed by the Donald Trump family, is planning to go public and may raise private funds.
• Video game retailer GameStop Corporation has completed a $1.3 billion convertible debt offering and is set to buy Bitcoin.
• DeFi derivatives protocol Polynomial has released icons for an airdrop and camera, hinting at a potential airdrop snapshot.
• Asset manager Grayscale has filed an S-3 registration with the US SEC to list a digital large-cap exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds a diverse basket of spot cryptocurrencies.
• The DeSci project Bio Protocol has announced that Bio V1 has been approved for release through voting, and three new BioDAOs, MycoDAO, SpineDAO, and ReflexDAO, will be going online.
• Lending platform Superseed has announced that its L2 mainnet is online.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	ELON Musk concept meme	Using Elon Musk’s name as the token’s abbreviation gives it a distinctive recognition. Within less than 24 hours of listing, the token has achieved a trading volume of over $32 million, demonstrating extremely high market activity with over 20,000 holder addresses. It has a total supply of 1 billion tokens and features zero fees.	16.7 million
	titcoin Highly popular meme	Titcoin’s name carries an obvious double entendre; “Tit” is slang for breasts in English, and when combined with “coin,” it creates a humorous and provocative brand image. Titcoin claims its mission is “female empowerment” and “celebrating the beauty of the female body.” By enlisting attractive and well-built international influencers to promote it (through photos or videos), it reinforces its association with a sexy image. Currently, it has over 17,000 holder addresses.	32 million
	Grumpy Internet celebrity cat meme	Grumpy Cat Coin ($GRUMPY) is inspired by one of the internet’s most iconic cat memes, “Grumpy Cat” (real name Tardar Sauce). This cat became an online sensation in 2012 due to its naturally “grumpy” expression and has since amassed over 13 million fans worldwide. At present, the token’s market capitalization stands at $4.1 million.	96,000

Exchange updates

• WOO X has introduced the "Sync Current Positions" feature for smarter social trading.
• Bitget has expanded its offerings by listing PumpBTC (PUMP) on perpetual contracts, spot trading, and a Candyboom special event, launching the bAI FUND (BAI), introducing the first-ever "Hold to Earn" LSD Earn zone on Bitget Wallet, and, through Bitget Seed, launching Housecoin (HOUSE) and Buckazoids (BUCKAZOIDS).
• According to the S-1 filing submitted by stablecoin issuer Circle, Coinbase, as its core partner, can receive 50% of the remaining revenue from USDC stablecoin reserves.
• Former FTX community partner Benson Sun has tweeted that ACT suddenly crashed by 50% because Binance adjusted the leverage position limit for ACT, which resulted in the liquidation of market makers' excess positions at market price. Meanwhile, Binance responded to the ACT drop incident, stating that four users briefly sold over 1 million USDT tokens, triggering a cascade of declines.
• Binance Alpha has added PumpBTC (PUMP) and launched Grass (GRASS), Aethir Token (ATH), Cat in a Dog's World (MEW), and Big Time (BIGTIME), while Binance Wallet has launched PumpBTC's TGE event and Binance Megadrop has launched KernelDAO (KERNEL).
• Bybit will delist RIFSOL/USDT perpetual contracts on April 7, while Bybit Web3 will streamline its product offerings by shutting down the NFT marketplace, inscriptions marketplace, and IDO product page on April 9.

Industry landscape

• AI infrastructure protocol Cambrian Network has completed a $5.9 million seed funding, led by a16z CSX.
• Digital assets manager Pantera is planning to raise $1 billion for its fifth venture capital fund, Fund V.
• Digital asset management platform Backpack has completed the acquisition of FTX EU and will initiate fund reimbursement.
• Coinbase shares dropped 33% in the first quarter of 2025 amid mounting concerns over an economic slowdown, marking the company's worst quarter since the FTX collapse in 2022.

Emerging projects

Token	Baby	IMHPC	ESIM
Description	On Solana, a memecoin has been launched featuring the concept of a pet deer captured by the US government, similar to the previous PNUT concept.	iMHPC has been optimized for AI and ML workloads, such as training large language models, by combining functionality and simplicity to deliver performance enhancements.	An eSIM card without KYC requirements is available for use in 135 different countries and supports Web3 wallet payments.
Token	$0.001499	$0.002375	$0.001613
Market Cap（$）	1.49 million	2.37 million	1.61 million
Token Holders	7,497	2,207	2,496

Token	PEPPER	GRUMPY	GOLD
Description	On Base, a memecoin has been introduced as a community blending memes, gaming, and education.	A memecoin on Solana is themed around a world-weary cat and is also an airdrop token for Solana phones, with its trading volume and price recently becoming active again.	On Solana, the gaming token Defi Dungeons is a fantasy RPG game that also features character NFTs with a floor price of four Sol, and the game will launch on April 3.
Price	$0.003759	$0.0006287	$0.03676
Market Cap（$）	3.75 million	6.28 million	36.76 million
Token Holders	122,854	91,519	4,712

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	rUSD|HONEY（Blockchain：Berachain） ←→ Token： rUSD|HONEY
Participation Method	From the Infrared website, navigate to Vaults, connect a Berachain-compatible wallet, and deposit rUSD|HONEY into the corresponding liquidity pool to provide liquidity (essentially delegating your funds to Infrared).
Project Information	Berachain: A high-performance, EVM-compatible blockchain built on a liquidity-proof consensus mechanism. Infrared: An application based on Berachain’s liquidity-proof consensus, offering PoL vaults and iBGT liquid staking derivatives. Reservoir: A decentralized stablecoin protocol on Berachain that provides the stablecoin rUSD. Kodiak: Berachain's native liquidity hub, which combines concentrated liquidity with automated liquidity management.
Earnings Details	Staked currency: rUSD|HONEY iBGT APR: 15.99% (yield is determined by the proportional weight of the staked token and is continuously variable, with the yield expressed in iBGT)
Product Data	Token: rUSD|HONEY Total market staking amount: 17.01M Earning model: AMM
Note	BGT is Berachain's governance token that enables holders to receive a portion of the revenue fees from core dApps on Berachain, although specific details have not been disclosed. BGT can be exchanged 1:1 for BERA (*BERA cannot be exchanged for BGT), and BGT can only be obtained by participating in projects within the ecosystem. iBGT is the liquid staking version provided by Infrared.finance and can be sold or exchanged directly on the Berachain official website.

Risk: The current pool's TVL is relatively small, so users should invest cautiously. Please conduct your own research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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