BTC's fall is limited amid global stocks plunge

Mainstream data observations

1. BTC core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $77,107 with a liquidation amount of $73.2859 million.

Short positions: Liquidation price at $79,717 with a liquidation amount of $849 million.Current BTC price is $77,146. Long positions are in a dangerous liquidation zone, indicating some downside risk. If the price falls below $78,183, it could trigger long liquidations, pushing the price further down.

2. ETH core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,523.7 with a liquidation amount of $44.5153 million

Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,563.6 with a liquidation amount of $142 million.Current ETH price is $1,544. The short liquidation amounts are more concentrated and significant, reflecting a strong bearish sentiment on ETH. The current price is near the long liquidation level; thus, shorting might be considered if the price falls below $1,564.3, with a stop-loss set above $1,611.8 to mitigate rebound risk.

3. Total stablecoin market cap: $236.3B

The total market cap has shown no significant changes. The stablecoin regulatory bill passed by the US House Financial Services Committee, and market analysis suggests that Tether’s USDT might not comply with the new SEC stablecoin regulations, leading Tether to consider creating a compliant stablecoin registered in the US

1. BTC market cap share: 62.50% 

TOTAL 3 market cap: $705.52BBTC’s market cap share has steadily increased, now exceeding 62%, while the TOTAL 3 market cap continues to decline. With more details of the tariff policy being disclosed, the market has been briefly gripped by panic, with the TOTAL 3 market cap dropping 7.89% over the past three days.

5. Current miner breakeven price: $53,795.08

Currently, 52% of mining machines are above the shutdown price, which is an early bearish market signal; note that the shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is around $66K.

6. Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.74

The MVRV ratio—current market cap over the realized value (the sum of all BTC values at their last movement)—indicates that market confidence in BTC has slightly improved.

7. Bitcoin BVIV score: 61.46

Influenced by tariff information, the score surged by 13.55% over the past three days to 62.97, indicating increased BTC volatility. Today’s index has slightly retreated but remains at a moderately high level. Previously, on March 9, the index peaked at 63.8, corresponding to a BTC price low of $78,602 on that day. Therefore, a BTC price low may occur soon.

[Market rating]

After the specifics of the tariff policy were announced, the market showed strong bearish sentiment, with US stocks plummeting. Over half of BTC mining machines are now operating above their shutdown price, and BTC's market cap dominance has exceeded 62%, signaling early signs of a bearish market. The performance of altcoins has significantly lagged behind BTC, with altcoins losing major liquidity. Currently, the bull/bear sentiment score stands at 40. BTC remains bearish, and we need to wait for the US stock market to open tonight to determine whether any negative news will be released, potentially impacting the market.

Market overview

BTC began its continuous decline on April 6, as market panic started to spread. The consecutive drops led to important support levels for BTC at $82,000 and $78,000 being broken, and currently, the market is waiting for the US stock market to open along with the release of more favorable tariff-related policies. Against the backdrop of global stock declines, BTC's overall drop has been relatively limited; however, a reversal in market sentiment could lead to a rapid rebound. In summary, BTC remains cautiously bearish at the moment, with strong support at around $74,000.

Macro overview

On the night of April 6 (Beijing time), US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that Donald Trump's tariff strategy would not be delayed, noting that it "will continue for days or even weeks." This comment deepened investors' pessimism and further pushed BTC and gold lower. The impact extended to Asian stock markets at open: the Nikkei triggered a circuit breaker, the Shanghai Composite Index opened seven points lower, and Nasdaq futures fell five points. Traders are now pricing in a 120-basis-point rate cut for this year, as the market reels from the short-term shock caused by the tariffs. Divergent views have even emerged within Trump's team regarding the tariffs. On April 5, Elon Musk criticized the educational background of US Trade Advisor Navarro on social media and suggested that Europe and the US should implement zero tariffs to establish a free trade zone between Europe and North America. Since Trump took office, Musk has incurred losses of over $130 billion due to Tesla's decline.

Key events

• According to Decrypt, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has stated that he doesn't mind if USDT is banned in the US due to new regulations, and he is considering creating a new stablecoin that is registered in the US.
• This week, tokens including APT, AXS, and MOVE will see significant unlock, with a total value of $314 million.
• The fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) infrastructure Mind Network has announced the opening of an FHE token airdrop query. 
• According to Cloverpool data, Bitcoin mining difficulty has increased by 6.81% to 121.51 T, reaching an all-time high.
• Base Chain AI Agents creation protocol Virtuals Protocol has launched the Virgen Points System, which will be used to access the upcoming AI agents.
• According to Coingape, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has that Bitcoin is becoming an "emerging store of value." 
• At the "BUIDL 2025" crypto summit, Morph's Chief Growth Officer Colin Goltra stated that on-chain financial systems will be more beneficial to people in times when the traditional financial system is unstable.
• DoubleZero, a decentralized framework for creating and managing high-performance permissionless networks, has unveiled the 2Z tokenomics.
• Digital asset manager Grayscale has filed an S-1 form with the US SEC to launch a Solana ETF and updated the composition weights of its four multi-asset funds, with the Grayscale Smart Contract Fund (GSC) removing NEAR using the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform’s selected weight cap index method and its decentralized AI Fund removing LPT.
• Sui Testnet has launched the decentralized private management service, Seal.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated in a post to X that OpenAI will release o3 and o4-mini in a few weeks, and GPT-5 in a few months.
• Lens Chain, a seamless platform for building SocialFi experiences, has gone live by integrating ZKsync and Avail DA while supporting a complete migration to Lens V2.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	RFC Musk concept meme is trending	RFC calls itself the "Retard Finder" and parodies speculative behavior in the cryptocurrency world through self-deprecation and absurdity. Elon Musk has repeatedly used the term "retard" on X—for example, when responding to critics or teasing—which has gradually popularized the word within right-wing and crypto communities. RFC leverages this trend to create a memecoin that resonates with Musk's "fringe culture" image. Although the market has been sluggish recently, this meme has been spotlighted through Musk’s multiple responses and has shown strong performance lately.	21.71 million
	AERGO Strong performance today	Aergo was launched by the South Korean blockchain technology company Blocko, which has received support from major enterprises like Samsung. Aergo aims to provide businesses and developers with a simple, efficient blockchain solution for building and deploying decentralized applications, and its token price has experienced notable fluctuations recently.	40.26 million
	CBK Strong performance today	Cobak token (CBK) is an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum blockchain, closely linked to Cobak, a leading Web3 cryptocurrency community platform in South Korea. The platform is designed to provide users with real-time cryptocurrency investment information, project updates, exchange announcements, and global crypto news. Despite a significant market downturn, this Korean project has been performing strongly.	49.61 million
	JOCKEY Popular IP meme	Jockey is a decentralized token inspired by the "Chicken Jockey" scene from Minecraft. In Minecraft, the "Chicken Jockey" is a rare hostile creature comprising a baby zombie riding a chicken, combining elements of humor, rarity, and challenge.	1.1 million
	MAG Religious and cultural meme	Magnetix is positioned as a "Neuro-Religion" cultural token, inspired by the Law of Attraction. The project aims to drive financial growth and personal success through collective belief, positive thinking, and community energy. It advocates enhancing community energy through gratitude, visualization, and shared belief to attract wealth and opportunities. By merging this philosophy with Web3 technology, Magnetix seeks to create a unique economic ecosystem. The token had previously dropped 80% from its high before recently rebounding strongly.	13.6 million

Exchange updates

• Binance has upgraded its Launchpool and BNB pages, with the Launchpool page now featuring push notification functionality and integrated HODLer airdrop information, and the BNB page providing an overview of airdrop opportunities and explaining the utility of holding BNB, and it has also launched pre-market trading for BABY/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 5x leverage.
• Bitget has launched AMP/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage.
• BNB Chain, the community-driven blockchain ecosystem, has announced the 16 early-stage projects selected for season 9 of the Most Valuable Builder (MVB) Accelerator Program. 
• Bitget has become the third mainstream exchange globally to obtain dual licenses from the National Digital Assets Commission of El Salvador (CNAD) ’s Digital Asset Service Provider (DASP)  and Bitcoin Service Provider (BSP).

Industry landscape

• At the "2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival" conference, the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Chan Mao-po, Hong Kong stablecoin legislation is about to pass.
• According to Reuters, Russia's central bank is preparing to allow domestic investment in cryptocurrencies, but only for certain market participants.
• French Hill, the chairman of the US House Financial Services and Agriculture Committees has proposed six major principles for digital asset legislation.
• US SEC is scheduled to hold its second roundtable discussion on cryptocurrency regulation on April 11 to address ongoing regulatory challenges and explore potential frameworks for the digital asset industry, while its Corporate Finance Department has stated that fully reserved, highly liquid, dollar-backed stablecoins are not considered securities.
• Cryptocurrency asset exchange platform P2P.me has completed a $2 million seed funding round, participated in by Coinbase Ventures.
• Codex, a blockchain startup designing blockchains for stablecoins, has completed a $15.8 million seed funding round, led by Dragonfly Capital.

Emerging projects

Token	RFC	jockey	FAT
Description	RFC calls itself the "Retard Finder," using self-deprecation and absurdity to parody speculative behavior in the cryptocurrency world. Elon Musk has repeatedly used the term "retard" on X—whether in response to critics or for teasing—which has gradually popularized the term within right-wing and cryptocurrency communities. RFC leverages this trend to create a memecoin that resonates with Musk's "fringe culture" persona.	Centered around the viral spread of the "Chicken Jockey" scene from the Minecraft movie and the collective euphoria of audiences screaming in theaters, a meme narrative is formed with gaming memes and the ritual of movie-watching at its core.	Constructing an anti-mainstream narrative around "obesity pride" and street culture, it deconstructs body size discrimination through the "Fat Fella" persona and forms a cultural symbol with endorsements from celebrities like Snoop Dogg, ultimately challenging traditional aesthetic standards through the concept of dietary freedom.
Price	$0.02208	$0.001191	$0.01628
Market Cap（$）	22.08 million	11.91 million	16.28 million
Token Holders	8,025	1,932	12,656

Token	AISLOP	LUCE	YZY
Description	AISLOP builds a meme culture centered around AI-generated absurd content, creating a viral spread effect through "net garbage aesthetics." The project is positioned as a hub for AI-generated internet content, blending elements of celebrity parody, nonsensical splicing, and other subcultural influences to create controversial digital excrement art.	LUCE centers on the official mascot of the Vatican's 2025 Jubilee, merging religious symbols with modern meme culture to construct a dual narrative of "spiritual belief + popular symbols." Through fictional co-branded events (such as the McLUCE package) that enhance its communicative appeal, LUCE shapes a community identity of "digital age pilgrims."	Built around Kanye West's controversial cultural symbolism, the project integrates postmodern art and extremist aesthetics through "SWASTICOIN," championing an anti-mainstream cultural narrative. Its core meme is derived from the interplay between Ye's album creation cycles and internet subculture clashes, emphasizing cultural subversion.
Price	$0.001402	$0.01924	$0.003788
Market Cap（$）	1.4 million	19.24 million	3.78 million
Token Holders	1,172	42,309	12,557

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

After observing the position movements of multiple smart money wallets on Hyperliquid on April 7, a clear consistency in their overall strategy emerged. Here is a summary:

Multiple smart money players have significantly shorted small-cap tokens, with HYPE being the primary target. Four addresses are heavily shorting HYPE, with an average unrealized return ranging from 135% to 156%, indicating extremely precise entry timing. In addition to HYPE, tokens such as PURR, VIRTUAL, BADGER, and Fartcoin are also being shorted, all showing notable profits, which demonstrates a very concentrated strategy preference.

Only one BTC long position was found among these wallets; however, it is currently at a floating loss of -$85,000 (approximately -144%), indicating that smart money is not optimistic about BTC in the short term.

Overall, smart money's current strategy is predominantly shorting, with a clear bearish outlook on small tokens, and there are no clear signs of position closing. It is speculated that they still expect further downward movement in the market. Investors are advised to exercise increased caution with short-term operations, moderately consider following the smart money’s pace, and avoid trading against the prevailing trend.

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Position size	Average cost	Current price	Liquidation price	Unrealized PnL	PnL for this address in the last 7 days
0xb3e475368ed0fa0ad23c04de0423d48a0758806f	HYPE	Short	1,455,392.53	21.1	10.62	31.89	1,444,985.26 (149.26%)	+271,843(68%)
	PURR	Short	25,178.33	0.2908	0.0685	8.01	81,675.11 (229.31%)
	BNB	Short	362,311.79	656.56	559.89	5,694.26	62,757.18 (147.73%)
	MNT	Short	44,744.05	0.7506		48.31	4,164.84 (42.68%)
	BTC	Long	1,102,080	83,475	78,702	X	-85,471.48 (-144.18%)
0xe0cc85525563dadd56fdcd96581f7b587a2b2411	Fartcoin	Short	229,940	0.4763	0.4595	1.25	8,267.49 (10.42%)	+204,244
0xf467b892ddd18b4449e89fcf02a22f23cbf72d1d (Position size greater than 10,000)	HYPE	Short	52,921.45	22.07	10.59	60.78	57,353.89 (156.18%)	+41,012
	VIRTUAL	Short	43,170.95	0.9815	0.4726	3.38	46,604.27 (259.58%)
	WLD	Short	38,277.98	3.86	0.6378	5.28	193,559.47 (835.04%)
	BADGER	Short	10,770.65	4.31	1.03	26.45	34,367.12 (380.86%)
0xccf135ab352d561a15eb7be2a243cc4fcb7f0ab1	HYPE	Short	1,263,253.6	19.22	10.62	20.82	1,044,869 (135.73%)	+237,004 (165%)
0x3c65c137bf380df7f5f61d9318c193b32a344fb0	HYPE	Short	618,260.43	19.89	10.62	19.32	551,775.17 (141.41%)	X

Smart Money selection logic:

• Outstanding PnL over the past 7 days
• Trade frequency does not exceed 50 trades per week, excluding high-frequency trading by bots
• Win rate above 50%
• Cumulative PnL over the past three months shows no significant drawdowns

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	BERA|HONEY（Blockchain：Berachain） ←→ Token： BERA|HONEY
Participation Method	From the Kodiak website, go to Pools, connect a Berachain-compatible wallet, and deposit BERA|HONEY into the corresponding liquidity pool.
Project Information	Berachain: A high-performance, EVM-compatible blockchain built on liquidity proof consensus. Kodiak: Berachain's native liquidity hub, combining concentrated liquidity and automated liquidity management.
Earnings Details	Staking Currency: BERA|HONEY BGT APR: 46.31% (continuously fluctuating; yield is in BGT) Pool APR: 2.36%
Product Data	Token: BERA|HONEY Total Pool Staking: 23.19M Kodiak will charge 10% of the generated LP fees as a management fee.
Note	BGT is the governance token of Berachain and allows holders to receive a portion of the revenue fees from core dApps on Berachain (specific details have not been disclosed). BGT can be exchanged 1:1 for BERA, but *BERA cannot be exchanged for BGT; BGT can only be obtained by participating in ecosystem projects.

Risk: Given the current market conditions, BGT is subject to price volatility risk, and the actual yield is for reference only. Investors should exercise caution and conduct their own research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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