Risk-off rotation sends capital to majors like AAVE

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:                                                              

Long position at $93,237 with a liquidation amount of $828 million.

Short position at $95,687 with a liquidation amount of $796 million

The current BTC price: $94,428, with $93,000 as a potential price support level. The liquidation amounts for short positions are concentrated and large, so liquidation risk should be monitored.

ETH core liquidation positions:                                                                                         

Long position at $1,787.6 with a liquidation amount of $254 million.                      

Short position at $1,844.6 with a liquidation amount of $518 million

The current ETH price: $1,805.4. Long position liquidation is strong and concentrated, with large liquidation amounts. Short position risk is relatively controllable, and liquidation intensity is more spread out.

Total stablecoin market cap: $242.86B

The total market cap saw a slight increase on May 6. USDC issued an additional 243.76M tokens, with an increase of 0.58% on Ethereum and 0.65% on Base.

BTC market cap share: 64.88%

TOTAL3 Market Cap: $796.29

BTC's market cap share remains at a historical high in 2025, with institutional capital continuously flowing into BTC, while altcoins are performing weakly. The TOTAL3 market cap saw a slight decrease on May 6, dropping by about $4.8 billion in the last 24 hours, returning to the level seen at the end of March.

Current core miner shutdown price: $70,135

The proportion of mining machines operating above the shutdown price has decreased to 5%. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is currently $60,000, which is a key price level to monitor.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.14

MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The index has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high neutral level, indicating strong market recognition of BTC.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 47.79

The BVIV score has slightly increased on May 6, but has remained at a relatively low level recently.

[Market rating]

After BTC's price retraction from its peak, altcoins followed BTC's movement and also corrected. US SEC delayed its decision on the Litecoin Spot ETF application submitted by Canary Capital. After BTC’s pullback from the high point, its performance has weakened. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 97.3%. Market expectations for a rate cut have decreased, with the anticipated rate cut now expected to be delayed until June. BTC and gold are showing signs of "decoupling." The current market bull/bear sentiment score is 70 (Neutral, Cautiously Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

BTC broke through 96,000 and surged to around 97,800, but failed to break the lower bound of the previous central range at 99,300. It then experienced a rapid pullback and is currently hovering around 94,000. From the candlestick pattern, only a breakthrough above 95,700 (the first volume-enhanced bearish candle of this round’s five-minute-level pullback) would signal the end of this correction. Otherwise, the market will continue to fluctuate and test the daily MA140 around 92,350.

BTC’s market dominance continues to rise, up 18.27% since May 6, reaching 64.92%. The 70% mark is a key level; in both the August 2019 bear market and the December 2020 DeFi bull market, BTC’s market dominance briefly hit 70% before quickly dropping. The driving force behind the current rise in BTC market dominance is continuous institutional buying, which should be closely observed.

Macro overview

The probability of no interest rate change in May has risen to 97%, while the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in June has decreased to 29%. The probability of no rate change has surged to 70%. Although the US GDP grew by -0.3% in Q1, personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% quarter-over-quarter, showing a strong performance. This was mainly due to a record-high trade deficit, with imports surging 41.3%, which significantly dragged down GDP performance. The April non-farm payrolls report, released on May 2, showed 177,000 new jobs, higher than the market expectations of 133,000 to 138,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, indicating that the labor market remains resilient despite tariffs and government layoffs. The delay in rate cuts has benefited US stocks in the short term and caused a drop in gold prices, but data from May to June may worsen due to the lagging effect of tariffs. This is reflected in gold continuing to rise to $3,385 per ounce today. For BTC, a market rate cut would undoubtedly be the biggest positive, but delaying the rate cut will limit BTC’s continued rise in the short term. However, the large number of listed companies holding BTC and the continuous institutional buying will be the key factors driving BTC prices up in the future. Close attention should be paid to the inflows into BTC ETFs this week.

Key events

• US SEC Crypto Task Force has announced that it will hold a roundtable on May 12 titled "Tokenization – Asset On-Chain: The Intersection of TradFi and DeFi."
• According to Coin Desk, US SEC has postponed its decision on the Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF application submitted by Canary Capital and launched a public comment process to focus on evaluating whether the ETF meets regulatory requirements to prevent fraud and manipulation. 
• This week, tokens including LAYER, APT, and KAS will see significant unlock, with a total value of $156.2 million.
• Kyrgyzstan’s National Investment Agency has confirmed a new partnership with Binance and may include BNB and BTC in its national cryptocurrency reserves.
• Elon Musk has changed his X platform avatar to a "gork" meme-themed image and renames his nickname to "gorklon rust," causing the related memecoin "gork" to surge by 67.15% in 24 hours.
• Lending platform Superseed has tweeted that its SUPR token will be available for claim starting May 5.
• Stablecoin issuer Tether has released its first-quarter 2025 certification report, revealing that it holds nearly $120 billion in US Treasury bonds and confirming a quarterly operating profit exceeding $1 billion, while CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the company will launch a peer-to-peer network called Tether AI and plans to issue a new stablecoin pegged to the US dollar in the US by the end of 2025.
• Human verification encrypted project World has launched in the US, planning to release a Visa card allowing users to make payments using WLD tokens, and a pilot program among Tinder users in Japan, aiming to help users verify their real identity.
• Moonshot has announced the launch of New XAI gork ($gork).
• Asset management company Grayscale has announced the launch of the Bitcoin Adopters ETF (BCOR), which will track companies that adopt Bitcoin financial strategies
• Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) has reported first-quarter financial results, missing on both the top and bottom line.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	BWAH Popular narrative	The narrative of $BWAH revolves around the story of "blue-collar workers, gamblers, and dreamers pursuing financial freedom." The name BWAH is derived from the "sound of frustration," symbolizing the dissatisfaction of the working class with the 996 work schedule, corporate exploitation, and life struggles. It is described as the classic story of "coming together to buy coins and turn things around," attracting speculators hoping to change their fate through cryptocurrency.	2.3 million
	URMOM grok concept token	URMOM is inspired by Grok's catchphrase. Recently, the continuous surge of the GROK token has increased the market attention towards the URMOM token. Currently, there are 2,050 token-holding addresses.	3.6 million
	CHILLHOUSE Popular narrative	A token that combines the Chillguy IP image and the popular meme HOUSE concept. Its unique positioning has attracted a large following of users.	4.9 million

Exchange updates

• WOO X has listed HAEDAL/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 10x leverage.
• Coinbase has added PAX Gold (PAXG) to its asset listing roadmap.
• Binance Launchpool and Binance Alpha will list Space and Time (SXT) on May 8, while Binance Wallet has launched the 15th MYX.Finance (MYX) token-exclusive Token Generation Event (TGE), and Binance Alpha has announced that users with at least 137 Binance Alpha points will receive 291 BOOP tokens as rewards, with BOOP (BOOP) listed on Binance Alpha, and Binance HODLer airdrop launching StakeStone (STO), with Binance listing STO spot.
• Bitget has listed HOUSE/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage.
• OKX DEX has completed a comprehensive upgrade, with all services restored, strengthening the black address library, risk detection, and proactive risk control system to effectively intercept malicious behaviors and safeguard user assets.
• Bitget has listed the HOUSE/USDT and GORK/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, as well as Animecoin (ANIME) and New XAI gork (GORK) for spot trading, along with the GENZ Token (GENZ) on Bitget Onchain.

Industry landscape

• US Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has vetoed the state’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill SB 1025.
• The EU will ban anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coin transactions starting in 2027 under sweeping new AML regulations targeting service providers and token anonymity.
• Web3 infrastructure project aZen has completed a $1.2 million seed funding round, led by Waterdrip Capital.
• According to Jinse Finance, Nigerian President Tinubu has signed the Investment and Securities Act 2025, recognizing Bitcoin as securities.
• Crypto venture firm dao5 has closed a $222 million second fund.

Emerging projects

Token	BOOP	GORK
Description	BOOP is centered around the popular airdrop mechanism within the crypto community, building community identity through subcultural tags like "online addicts" and "meme creators." It combines staking rewards to create a "cult-like" atmosphere of spreading, using partnerships with KOLs to enhance meme dissemination.	The parody AI of grok, simply responds whenever "gork" is tagged in Twitter posts and comments. Due to its phonetic similarity and the AI's sharp-tongued personality, Elon Musk has interacted with it multiple times, which has become a key part of the narrative.	$MFERS revolves around anti-traditional finance (tradfi) as its core narrative, blending self-deprecating internet culture ("Retard Sender") and community collective action. Through airdrops and slogan-based communication, it emphasizes grassroots resistance against the system. The initiators are not explicitly identified, but tweets mention organic community efforts using small wallets to fight against large institutions.
Price	$0.3162	$0.04832	$0.001610
Market Cap（$)	316.2 million	48.32 million	1.61 million
Token Holders	8,947	24,039	2,939

Token	Boopa	DONKEY	Italianrot
Description	The "boop" interactive culture is a community-driven meme project centered around dogs, combining cute pet elements with humorous action memes to create a lighthearted and entertaining crypto cultural symbol.	The project is built around the donkey as the core cultural narrative, merging the Eastern symbol of hard work with the Western literary image of wisdom and restraint, reinforcing a cross-cultural totem of resilience and loyalty. Classic IPs like Animal Farm are incorporated to deepen the meme's cultural richness.	The core narrative of Italianrot originates from the popular "Italian Brainrot" meme culture on TikTok. Using AI technology, animals are fused with everyday objects to create imaginative and fantastical creatures, such as "Tung Tung Tung" or "Crocodilo Bombombini." Each creature has its unique name and character setting, and this creativity is likened to the "Classic of Mountains and Seas" in Chinese traditional culture, thus being referred to by the community as the "American/Italian Classic of Mountains and Seas."
Price	$0.004890	$0.01524	$0.008516
Market Cap（$)	4.89 million	15.24 million	8.51 million
Token Holders	10,924	5,490	7,301

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

Funds are shifting to defense, with strong positions adjusting at high levels and mainstream coins seeing significant accumulation.

Positions with high ROE, such as TRUMP and PEPE, are being reduced or closed, suggesting that the hype around memecoins is gradually cooling, with some funds locking in profits and exiting.

Mainstream altcoins (BTC, AAVE) are receiving new capital from smart money, indicating a shift in market risk appetite towards more stable assets in the short term.

On the short side, except for WLD, other short positions are showing a significant decline in ROE, with VIRTUAL continuing to underperform, indicating that short opportunities in the market are narrowing.

Newly entered assets like ZORA and ZEREBRO are low-market-cap assets, possibly for early positioning or diversified testing, but profits are not yet significant.

Strategy recommendations: Monitor the sustainability of funds in mainstream altcoins and defensive memecoins.

If BTC and AAVE continue to receive new capital and prices rise steadily, it would indicate a healthy consolidation or the start of a new upward trend in the overall market.

If memecoins like PEPE and TRUMP fail to attract new funds, they will likely enter a consolidation phase in the short term, and vigilance should be increased.

Pay attention to whether smart money significantly adds to new assets again or if "reverse shorting" signals appear, as this could indicate a market shift.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	8,132.12 (27.69%)	17,295/ 225,867
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-25,915.86 (-318.43%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	179,875.13 (776%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	5,306.53 (115.61%)
	ZORA	-1,350,865	1,225.12 (21.85%)
0xc7…5bc	BTC	+18.1995	81,584.73 (75.06%)	-11,124/ 92,766
	AAVE	+2,802.29	9,566.02 (20.21%)
0x50…db6	BTC	+1,318.24	665,524.41 (21.35%)	-9,201,642/ 5,565,654.96
	PEPE	+3,652,847,560	991,059.14 (36.02%)
	FARTCOIN	+12,298,232	2,133,349.49 (92.9%)
	TRUMP	+1,300,778	1,723,255.84 (137.32%)
	AIXBT	+1,245,038	56,078.99 (178.46%)
0x32…812	SOL	+17,563.5	522,798.06 (104.21%)	987,098/ 551,347
	ZEREBRO	2,139,886	-3,367.56 (-11.21%)	-67,397/ 522,321

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Cetus（Blockchain：Sui） ←→ Token：USDC | suiUSDT
Participation Method	On the Cetus official website, go to "Earn," connect a wallet that supports Sui, and deposit USDC | suiUSDT to participate in supply.
Project Information	Cetus: A DEX and concentrated liquidity protocol based on Move, focusing on Aptos and Sui.
Earnings Details	Tokens: USDC | suiUSDT (Proportion: suiUSDT 90.72% : USDC 9.28%) APR: 11.86% (Returns are subject to change) Yield Tokens: SUI (2985 tokens daily) + CETUS (20,000 tokens daily)
Product Data	Tokens: USDC | suiUSDT Total token deposit: 53.18M Liquidity: 53.18M 24h trading volume: 36.38M Minimum slippage: 0.1%
Note	suiUSDT is USDT on the Sui chain and can be obtained through Swap.

Risk: The price volatility of yield tokens may affect returns. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.

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