BTC dominance nears 70 in a repeat pattern

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:

Long position at $95,882 with a liquidation amount of $632 million.

Short position at $97,877 with a liquidation amount of $334 million.                          

The current BTC price is $96,583. Long position liquidation intensity is relatively strong and concentrated. $95,000 can be observed as a potential price support level. Short position risk is relatively controllable.

ETH core liquidation positions:                                                                                          

Long position at $1,803.6 with a liquidation amount of $304 million;                        

Short position at $1,860.3 with a liquidation amount of $213 million.                        

The current Ethereum price is $1,822.9. Long position liquidation intensity is strong and concentrated, with large liquidation amounts. Short position risk is relatively controllable, and the liquidation intensity is more dispersed.

Total stablecoin market cap: $242.86B                                               

The total market cap has seen a slight increase on May 7. USDT has issued an additional 280M tokens, with a 7.10% increase on Sui. The Sui ecosystem has been relatively active recently.

BTC market cap share: 65.21%                                                                                          

TOTAL 3 market cap: $803.38B                                                                                        

BTC market cap share has risen again on May 7, returning to the level seen at the end of 2024. The TOTAL 3 market cap increased by $712 million on May 7.

Current core miner shutdown price: $70,130 

The proportion of mining machines operating above the shutdown price is 5%. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is currently $60,000, which can be observed as a key price level.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.15

The MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The index has slightly increased and is at a relatively high neutral level, similar to the level seen at the end of 2024.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 49.27

The BVIV score has slightly increased today but remains at a relatively low level, indicating a lower likelihood of BTC experiencing significant volatility.

[Market rating]

On the morning of May 7, BTC rose to a high of $96,900, breaking through a key price level. In terms of tariffs, China and the US have initiated negotiations, with He Lifeng set to hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Benson on tariff issues. The focus now is on the US Federal Reserve’s stance regarding the interest rate cut path for the second half of 2025. The current market bull/bear sentiment score is 80 (Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

BTC’s market dominance continues to rise, up 18.27% since May 6, reaching 64.92%. The 70% mark is a key level; in both the August 2019 bear market and the December 2020 DeFi bull market, BTC’s market dominance briefly hit 70% before quickly dropping. The driving force behind the current rise in BTC market dominance is continuous institutional buying, which should be closely observed.

Market overview

According to a report by Bloomberg, US Treasury Secretary Benson and US Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland later this week to hold trade negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The expectation of easing in the trade war has been strengthened, driving the Nasdaq futures up by 1% and BTC to a near-term high of $97,700. Gold has slightly declined to $3,387 in response, while the US Dollar Index has fallen to around 99. Asian-Pacific currencies have significantly appreciated. In response to the currency appreciation of the Chinese yuan, the People’s Bank of China has announced interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions.

The progress of tariff negotiations is a direct positive for both US stocks and BTC. However, the Federal Reserve’s stance on May 7 will determine the mid-term trend of BTC. Currently, influenced by non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data, the Fed’s hawkish remarks have pushed back the expectation of interest rate cuts to June. The focus is now on how Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s statements will affect the interest rate cut path for the second half of 2025.

Key events

• According to the Financial Times, some wallets have profited approximately $100 million by purchasing Donald Trump's wife's memecoin MELANIA in advance.
• According to Whale Alert monitoring, USDC issuer USDC Treasury has issued an additional $250 million USDC on the Solana blockchain. 
• Donald Trump's family project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has initiated a proposal to airdrop USD1 stablecoins to WLFI holders.
• Listed company Thumzup is planning to raise $500 million to purchase Bitcoin and has applied for a capital increase to the US SEC.
• Berachain Foundation has tweeted that the Berachain Boyco airdrop is now open for collection.
• Liquid staking protocol Haedal has launched a HAEDAL buyback plan, with 50% of the protocol's earnings used to purchase HAEDAL from the secondary market.
• Tether's RWA platform Hadron by Tether has integrated Chainalysis' compliance and monitoring tools.
• Stablecoin issuer Tether has announced a partnership with Chainalysis that will integrate the company’s compliance and monitoring tools onto Tether’s tokenization platform. 
• Retail trading platform eToro is seeking to raise $500 million in its initial public offering (IPO).

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	LLJEFFY Hot meme	The narrative of $LLJEFFY originates from the story of Jeffy Yu. It is said that Jeffy Yu is the founder of Zerebro, who proposed the concept of “Legacoin,” a memecoin intended to commemorate the deceased and pass on a legacy. On May 6, 2025, news of Jeffy Yu’s suicide circulated on social media, accompanied by a video and a blog allegedly published after his death. The blog elaborated on the philosophy of Legacoin, emphasizing the coin as a symbol of “permanence, heritage, and immortality.” The name LLJEFFY is an abbreviation of “Long Live Jeffy.” The coin once surged to a value of $30 million.	7.5 million
	vampcoin2 Hot meme	The narrative of Vampcoin2 revolves around the vampire theme, continuing the exaggerated, humorous, and community-driven style common in memecoins. Its name and slogans imply that it is a “sequel” or “fork” of the earlier meme coin Vampcoin, claiming to “suck the blood out of Vampcoin” (rotate all your bags to here) and capture market attention and funds through its new narrative.	3.8 million
	SOOMER Hot meme	The narrative of SOOMER centers on meme culture, enthusiasm for the Solana ecosystem, and the speculative spirit of DeFi. Its official website (soomer.xyz) describes it as “a new dawn for Solana enthusiasts,” narrating the typical image of a “SOOMER”: an investor obsessed with the Pump.fun platform, chasing meme coin trends, experiencing ups and downs in funds, and ultimately “making a comeback” through the $SOOMER token.	11.4 million
	CB Hot meme	The narrative of $CB focuses on the absurd and humorous combination of “chicken” and “banana,” creating a highly visually striking and meme-spreading symbol. There are 1.7 million related videos on TikTok, with some of the popularity driven by the YouTube influencer “Chicken Genius.”	2.1 million

Exchange updates

• Bybit has launched the MILK/USDT perpetual contract with up to 12.5x leverage and listed Obol (OBOL).
• Binance has listed Maple Finance (SYRUP) and Kamino Finance (KMNO), launched MYX (MYX) on Binance Alpha, listed ASR/USDT and ALPINE/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 75x leverage, and announced that the participation threshold for MYX Finance’s TGE requires 142 Alpha points.
• Bitget has listed ASR/USDT, ALPINE/USDT, and B2/USDT perpetual contracts, and its on-chain trading platform has launched MYX Finance, stickman, DeFi, and BWAH.

Industry landscape

• According to Bloomberg, New Hampshire has become the first state in the United States to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, which authorizes the state treasurer to purchase Bitcoin or digital assets with a market value of over $500 billion, setting a holding limit of 5% of the total reserve funds.
• NFT project Doodles has tweeted that airdrops of DOOD will be issued to eligible users.
• NewLimit, founded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, has completed a $130 million Series B funding round, led by Kleiner Perkins.
• DogeOS, the Dogecoin ecosystem application development layer, has completed a $6.9 million funding round, led by Polychain Capital.
• Sentora, the merged company of IntoTheBlock and Trident Digital, has completed a $25 million funding round, led by New Form Capital.
• According to CoinDesk, US Florida has withdrawn the review of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, which sought to allow investment of public funds in BTC.

Emerging projects

Token	urmom	vampcoin2	CB
Description	The inspiration for URMOM comes from Grok's catchphrase, and the recent surge in the GORK token has increased the market attention on the URMOM token.	The token iteration narrative is built around the vampire myth, with the core being the "blood-sucking" liquidity of vampcoin2 on the original vampcoin and the expectation of subsequent vampcoin3. The tweets imply a premeditated liquidity transfer plan, but there is no clear origin event, and the initiators are mostly ordinary accounts without any background endorsement.	The core meme is the absurd combination of chicken and banana, integrated with Italian community cultural elements, creating a viral spread point through simple and repetitive visual symbols and slogans. The narrative lacks deep logic but has strong visual impact.
Price	$0.01225	$0.004258	$0.002138
Market Cap（$)	12.25 million	4.25 million	2.13 million
Token Holders	4,308	1,975	3,615

Token	PUFF	RWAI	moonpig
Description	$PUFF combines the dissemination momentum of TikTok's top-tier pet account @thelittlepuff (with 32 million followers) with the "vape-to-earn" health harm reduction concept, forming a dual narrative of pet economy and subculture (#420). The community reinforces the memory point through the "Puff Puff" slogan, but the connection between the health narrative and the main pet line is relatively weak.	$RWAI aims to fully automate the launch process of crypto projects and tokenized RWA on the blockchain. It transforms an idea into a well-researched, validated, and successfully launched project, eliminating the barriers of technical complexity and resource intensity.	Combining the imagery of lunar exploration with the image of a pig, a community-driven space-themed memecoin is created, reinforcing the "moon landing" cultural consensus through frequent space symbols and leveraging the liquidity advantages of the Solana ecosystem to build a foundation for dissemination.
Price	$0.004378	$0.002925	$0.007419
Market Cap（$)	4.37 million	29.92 million	7.41 million
Token Holders	1,783	2,460	1,419

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

Funds are flowing back to mainstream coins and high-quality meme targets, increasing pressure on short positions' unrealized profits. Short positions remain stable, but ROE is declining across the board, with HYPE and WLD showing profit-taking, indicating that the short-sellers' advantage is being eroded.

The address 0xf4…d1d has not made any reductions or adjustments, suggesting it is in a waiting or stuck position, with a conservative strategy but accumulating risks.

Long positions are strengthening. The BTC ROE of 0xc7…5bc has significantly increased. Although 0x50…db6 has reduced its holdings, the paper losses have been quickly recouped, showing that mainstream coins are attracting funds again.

The popularity of memecoins is rising, with PEPE and TRUMP's ROE increasing again. However, FARTCOIN has taken profits and exited, indicating that sector rotation has begun.

The SOL holdings of 0x32…812 continue to maintain a high ROE stably, showing that a single strong-chain strategy remains viable.

Recent market trends suggest a short-term bullish sentiment, with attention shifting toward sector rotation and increased fund inflows into mainstream coins.

Short positions may be seeing reduced conviction unless supported by high ROE opportunities.

On the long side, continued capital inflows into major assets could be a key indicator to watch.

The meme sector remains active, but signals of profit-taking, as seen in tokens like FARTCOIN, may point to heightened volatility and reduced upside from current levels.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	4,774.35 (16.26%)	5,166/ 225,167
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-20,335.34 (249.86%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	175,226.88 (755.95%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	5,808.94 (126.56%)
	ZORA	-1,350,865	3,532.43 (49.95%)
0xc7…5bc	BTC	+18.1995	129,977.12 (119.58%)	39,416/ 129,977
0x50…db6	BTC	+886.1985	2,192,729.38 (104.96%)	-4,093,213/ 7,258,695.37
	PEPE	+3,652,847,560	1,820,255.53 (66.16%)
	FARTCOIN	+11,696,825	1,581,036.19 (72.39%)
	TRUMP	+1,264,054	1,702,413.25 (139.6%)
0x32…812	SOL	+17,563.5	586,553.57 (116.92%)	23,486/ 586,553

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Cetus（Blockchain：Sui） ←→ Token：USDC | FDUSD
Participation Method	From the Cetus website, go to Earn, connect a wallet that supports SUI, and deposit USDC | FDUSD to participate in the supply.
Project Information	Cetus: A DEX and concentrated liquidity protocol based on Move, focusing on Aptos and SUI.
Earnings Details	Tokens: USDC | FDUSD (Proportion: FDUSD 52.63% : USDC 47.37%) APR: 34.59% (Returns are subject to change) Reward tokens: SUI (240 per day) + FDUSD (588 per day)
Product Data	Token: USDC | FDUSD Token total deposit volume: 3.16M Liquidity: 3.16M 24h trading volume: 15.98M Minimum slippage value: 0.1%

Risk: The price volatility of SUI may affect the returns. Additionally, the pool size is relatively small. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.

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