Market braces for flight as XRP fails to find a bottom
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $102184 with a liquidation amount of $887 million.
Short positions at $104848 with a liquidation amount of $535 million.
The current BTC price is $104041, short-position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated near $104800, where liquidation strength is significant.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $2508.6 with a liquidation amount of $511 million.
Short positions at $2601.4 with a liquidation amount of $315 million.
The current Ethereum price is $2572.4, short-position liquidation intensity is high, and there is a large liquidation amount near $2600, which can be monitored as a key price point.
Total stablecoin market cap: $243.13 billion:
Total market cap saw a slight increase today. USDT increased by $411.98 million with a 0.42% rise on Tron and a 1.88% rise on Tron.
BTC market share: 63.18%
TOTAL 3 market cap: $896.07 billion.
BTC market share rose again, funds are more inclined to flow into BTC, market preference for BTC strengthened, and TOTAL 3 market cap returned below $900 billion.
Current core miner shutdown price: $59,428
Current miner shutdown coin prices are all below the current BTC price, and the average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is $58000, which can be used as a key price point to observe.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.50
MVRV is the ratio of minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (the total value of all BTC at their last movement). It is currently at a neutral-high data level, market valuations are relatively high but have not yet reached the extreme overbought region, which is usually above six.)
Bitcoin BVIV score: 46.13
The BVIV score has fallen again and is at a relatively low data level, but one should be alert to a rebound in the score and the risk of BTC volatility.
[Market rating]
On the morning of May 16, BTC fell from above $104,000 to below $103,000 and then rallied, and is currently fluctuating above $104,000. Recently, it has oscillated above $100,000 without breaking recent highs. The market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for a new catalyst. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 80 (cautiously bullish).[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC formed a wick down to around 101,270, then surged within the next 15 minutes. From several perspectives, we can evaluate whether the main players are taking profits or if price action is normal consolidation.
First, examine on chain behavior of large holders, especially addresses that hold more than 100 coins, to see whether they are still accumulating. Starting on April 7, any single-day purchase by large holders of more than 1,000 coins can be regarded as a continuous inflow. Although there has been a slight outflow recently, the overall trend has not changed.
Second, look at the chip distribution. In this round of BTC appreciation, core chips have been concentrated in two areas, one around 84,500 and another near 97,000. After the price broke through each of these chip zones, it moved up rapidly with very little chip accumulation. At present, there are very few chips above 105,000. In other words, as long as trading volume does not expand or BTC does not fall quickly and heavily through those two zones, subsequent upward moves are easy to achieve, but while the main players are not attacking, BTC price tends to move sideways.
Third, observe changes in BTC futures open interest and liquidations. If the main players are offloading, open interest will shrink sharply, especially when BTC approaches previous highs or lows. The pattern of liquidations is an important indicator of the market trend. In this round of advances, each large short liquidation has been an important driver pushing BTC upward. Recently, there has been only one significant long liquidation, yet the BTC price is still holding in a consolidation range. This shows that it is not a large-scale distribution by the main players, but more a short-term shakeout that wiped out high-leverage longs.
Fourth, keep a close eye on changes in the net assets of BTC ETFs. Since approval, institutions have quickly accumulated more than seven hundred thousand BTC through ETFs, and they have become an important source of buy-side demand. Monitoring ETF holdings can also indirectly reveal the direction of some large holders.
Combine the four factors above to assess whether BTC is showing abnormal data. If capital outflow appears in three or more of them, the probability of a short-term pullback increases. At present, BTC is in a short-term liquidity-draining phase. Once the main players consider the consolidation finished, a rise could start at any time. BTC market dominance is currently 63.1 %.
Macro overview
US lawmakers will hold a final vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill on May 19. The result will directly shape US regulation of digital assets. As the cryptocurrency legal framework matures, more publicly traded companies and institutions will continue buying Bitcoin. Strong demand combined with expectations of future rate cuts should push Bitcoin above $ 120,000. The probability that rates remain unchanged in June is 91%, and in July is 61%, reflecting an increased chance of no rate cut in July.
Key events
- Stablecoin company Ripple, Colombia-based fintech WEIA, and global humanitarian aid organization Mercy Corps launched an XRP Ledger pilot to help farmers address credit access issues.
- Japanese publicly listed company Remixpoint has increased its BTC holdings by 32.83 BTC, bringing its total to 648.82 BTC.
- According to Bitget market data, Ethereum has surged above 2600 USDT, while Bitcoin has surpassed 104,000 USDT.
- SonicAssistant, strategic director at Sonic Labs, announced that the company has notified market maker Wintermute of its decision not to renew the contract, bringing their five-year exclusive partnership to an end.
- YZi Labs(formerly Binance Labs) has launched a new offline incubation program called EASY Residency, kicking off in Silicon Valley on June 2.
- US SEC has postponed its decision on the 21Shares Polkadot Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), signaling a cautious approach to crypto investment products.
- Web3 AI company Openledger has established a foundation account.
- Blockchain data showed that Stablecoin issuer Tether has minted another one billion USDT tokens on Tron.
- Cryptocurrency payments FinTech MoonPay has partnered with Mastercard to offer stablecoin payment and spending services.
- L2 scaling solution B² Network has launched its native infrastructure protocol Agentic AI to enhance AI agent collaboration.
- According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $320 million on May 14, with none of the twelve ETFs reporting net outflows.
- According to GMGN market data, LAUNCHCOIN's market capitalization has reached as high as $370 million within the day, with a 24-hour increase of 27.91%.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Binance Wallet has launched the Alaya AI (AGT) TGE event, while Binance has announced that users must reach 187 Alpha points to participate in the NXPC airdrop.
- Bitget Onchain has listed tokens such as UBER, BSCREENER, and UNICORN, and Bitget has launched NXPC/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 50x leverage.
- Bybit has launched NXPC/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage.
Industry landscape
- DeFi strategy management platform XSY.fi has raised $5 million in a funding round, led by Borderless Capital and Protagonist.
- DoNotPay founder and CEO Josh Browder has tweeted that his venture capital firm Browder Capital has raised $30 million for a new fund, Browder Capital Fund Four, participated in by Sequoia Capital.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid smart money tracking
Capital flows are chaotic, and most positions are under pressure, with explorations and misjudgments occurring simultaneously.
0xf4…d1d: While XRP and ENA have reduced losses somewhat, HYPE and BTC short positions have deteriorated markedly; unrealized losses are near peak levels, and no stop-loss signals are evident.
0x50…db6: BTC positions were added again, but XRP longs have become a significant drag; it’s necessary to monitor for a reverse close to stop losses.
0xc7…5bc: A small-scale SOL redeployment was made, with entries kept conservative.
0x32…812: A Launchcoin position was added and immediately suffered heavy losses, and TURBO’s underperformance has made overall operations inefficient.
Summary: The market is potentially focusing on small, localized position tests while long positions require careful risk control.
BTC and PEPE remain relatively stable as the main offensive lines, with profit-taking on rallies.
Short positions in WLD, ZK, and similar assets are performing acceptably; other shorts warrant monitoring for further declines.
If XRP fails to show any sign of bottoming, sector-wide confidence could collapse. The market is watching for signs of capital outflows.
This cycle has seen dispersed capital and frequent new-asset trials with a low success rate; future operations may emphasize position reduction and selective entries.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.
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