BTC ETF outflows spark doubts over long-term value
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $102,424 with a liquidation amount of $701 million.
Short positions at $104,584 with a liquidation amount of $748 million
The current BTC price: $102,876, short-position liquidation intensity is high, concentrated around $104,500, with significant liquidation strength near this price.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $2,546.3 with a liquidation amount of $434 million.
Short positions at $2,657.3 with a liquidation amount of $653 million.
The current ETH price: $2,585.9, short-position liquidation intensity is high, with significant liquidation amounts near $2,660, making it a key price level to monitor.
Total stablecoin market cap: $242.54B
Total market cap saw a slight decrease today. USDT increased by $407.1M, with a 0.42% rise on Tron and a 2.47% increase on Arbitrum.
BTC market share: 62.57%
TOTAL 3 market cap: $912.47B
BTC’s market share remains high after a slight pullback from its peak, with strong market confidence in BTC. The TOTAL 3 market cap fluctuates above $900B, near the end-of-year levels from 2024.
Current core miner shutdown price: $59,186
Shutdown prices for mineable coins are currently below BTC’s price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is around $58,000, which should be a key price level to observe.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.51
MVRV is the ratio of the minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (total value of all BTC at their last movement). It is currently fluctuating around 2.5, indicating a neutral-high level and a potential risk of BTC reaching a peak.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 46.81
The BVIV score has decreased again and is currently at a six-month low, indicating low momentum for BTC volatility.
[Market rating]
BTC dropped from above $103,000 to below $103,000 this morning, and is currently fluctuating below $103,000. BTC ETF saw net outflows, and institutional investors believe the investment value of BTC is gradually declining. However, the long/short ratio on major exchanges is 0.7, with many users opting to short, possibly setting up a short squeeze (a rise followed by a correction). The current bull/bear sentiment score is 80 (Cautiously Bullish).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC surged to $104,300 before pulling back, with major coins experiencing a correction and altcoins seeing capital outflows. The focus is now on BTC's price movement, which has two potential scenarios:(1) After the current adjustment, BTC may break out to a new high (above $106,000), forming a zigzag pattern. This would create a strong technical chart from the $74,500 bottom, with three zigzag waves in this rebound. A strong correction is expected afterward, with the pullback range between 38.2% to 61.8% of this rise, i.e., $93,850 to $86,400.(2) BTC may directly break below the $100,000 level, with a relatively small overall correction. Afterward, it could continue to challenge the $117,000 level. These next few days are crucial for BTC. It's still uncertain whether BTC will first break out to a new high before a pullback or directly move into a downtrend and break key support. Close attention is needed on BTC's future price movement. Currently, BTC's market share is 62.6%.
Macro overview
On May 14, the 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs officially took effect. The US reduced tariffs on China from 145% (including a 125% additional tariff imposed on April 10, and the previous 20% fentanyl-related tariffs) to 30% (which includes the 10% "liberation day" base tariff and some existing tariffs), a 115% reduction. China reduced tariffs on the US from 125% (which included a 34% initial retaliatory tariff and subsequent hikes starting from April 11) to 10%. The US stock market has surged consecutively, essentially recovering the tariff-induced drop, and A-shares have recently reached new highs, erasing the sharp drop on April 7. The market has returned to normal. Gold dropped from its high of $3,400 to around $3,150 per ounce, and expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed until July. On May 15, attention will be focused on whether the PPI data exceeds expectations.
Key events
- According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, a bipartisan group of senators is close to reaching a consensus on the text of the stablecoin GENIUS Act after days of intense renegotiation, which may allow the bill to continue.
- According to CoinDesk, Bo Hines, executive director of the US Presidential Digital Asset Advisory Committee, has stated that despite the uncertainty in the legislative process, Donald Trump is still expected to sign the Stablecoin and Market Structure Act before the August congressional recess.
- MetaMask co-founder Dan Finlay has stated that the team is still considering a native token for the wallet.
- Cross-chain stablecoin USDT0, jointly launched by Tether and the LayerZero team, has announced that its total supply has surpassed four billion tokens.
- According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has dropped below 103,000 USDT.
- According to Decrypt, France's interior minister will meet with crypto professionals to address growing security concerns following a failed kidnapping attempt targeting the family of Paymium CEO Pierre Noizat.
- Stablecoin issuer Tether has unveiled its latest AI development platform named QVAC, designed for privacy-focused applications.
- Crypto financial technology Antalpha has listed on NASDAQ, raising approximately $49.3 million in its IPO.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Bitget has launched MYX/USDT and LAUNCHCOIN/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, partnered with decentralized asset issuance platform Reserve to launch DTF index fund trading and a $200,000 reward campaign, announced plans to improve network infrastructure in remote areas of the Philippines through Starlink satellite internet, and introduced on-chain trading for GOONC, NOODLE, and Cycle tokens.
- Binance.US has listed KAITO (KAITO), and Binance has distributed an additional 900 RDAC airdrops to users who previously received the RDAC airdrop. Additionally, Binance Alpha launched Port3 Network (PORT3), Privasea AI (PRAI), sudeng (HIPPO), Bluefin (BLUE), and NEXPACE (NXPC) on both Binance Alpha and Binance Futures. Binance Alpha also announced that users with a score of 198 points can participate in the exclusive Token Generation Event (TGE) for Privasea on the PancakeSwap platform.
- Bybit has listed NEXPACE (NXPC) and the LAUNCHCOIN/USDT perpetual contract with up to 12.5x leverage.
Industry landscape
- Blockchain ticketing platform KYD Labs has completed a $7 million seed funding round, led by a16z Crypto.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid smart money tracking
Funds are shifting to a more conservative approach, with noticeable profit-taking and the market entering a cooling phase.
Short positions (0xf4…d1d) remain mostly unclosed, but many have made slight recoveries. Apart from XRP experiencing a sharp reversal loss, other holdings have slightly improved.
Long positions (0x50…db6, 0x32…812) show clear reductions and declining ROE, indicating that smart money is gradually withdrawing and reducing exposure.
Memecoins like PEPE, although still providing high returns, are seeing ROE decline, suggesting no new momentum to drive further gains.
New positions (such as Launchcoin, increased TURBO) are performing poorly, and overall market enthusiasm is waning.
Summary:
The market is in a defensive phase, with short-term operations taking priority and careful position management required.
Long positions have seen profit-taking and reduced exposure.
Short positions, while stabilized, have not yet shown a clear downtrend, so short-term operations are in focus.
Memecoins and new assets (TURBO, Launchcoin) show less momentum, with attention to volume supporting potential rebounds.
Monitor the next one to two days for signs of further position reductions, which could signal a mid-term peak.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice of any kind. While we have made every effort to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate and up-to-date, we make no guarantees as to its completeness or accuracy. The content is based on information available at the time of writing and may be subject to change.
This article may include statements, opinions, or insights from third parties, including individuals from other companies or organizations. Any such statements are solely those of the respective individuals or entities and do not necessarily reflect our views, opinions, or positions. We do not endorse, verify, or assume any responsibility for the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any third-party statements or information referenced in this article.
Please note that this article might include references to third-party websites and data provided solely for convenience and informational purposes. We do not endorse or assume any responsibility for the content, accuracy, or reliability of any information, products, or services offered by third parties.
All market prices, data, and other information (including that which may be derived from third-party sources believed to be reliable) are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. WOO disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on or the use of this material in any way. The information contained herein is as of the date and time referenced only, and WOO does not undertake any obligation to update such information.
Cryptocurrencies involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of digital currencies can be extremely volatile, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before participating in any staking or investment activities.
We strongly recommend that you seek independent advice from a qualified professional before making any investment or financial decisions related to cryptocurrencies.. We shall in NO case be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on the information contained in this article.
