Markets brace for the US data week's impact on BTC
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $92,896 with a liquidation amount of $1.575 billion.
Short position: Liquidation price at $95,650 with a liquidation amount of $516 million.
The current BTC price: $95,650, with $92,000 as a potential price support. Short position liquidation amounts are relatively concentrated and significant, so liquidation risk should be monitored.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $1,779.6 with a liquidation amount of $213 million.
Short position: Liquidation price at $1,827.6 with a liquidation amount of $380 million.
The current ETH price: $1,799.6, with strong and concentrated long position liquidation, large liquidation amounts, and positioned in a liquidation danger zone. Short position risk is relatively controllable, with liquidation intensity more spread out.
Total stablecoin market cap: $240.0B
The total market cap saw a slight increase on April 29. USDT issued an additional 721.2M tokens, with a 0.28% increase on Tron and a 0.50% increase on Arbitrum.
BTC market cap share: 64.29%
TOTAL3 market cap: $825.77B
BTC’s market share slightly decreased on April 29, remaining at a high level. TOTAL3 market cap saw a small increase on April 29, rising by about $13 billion. Focus on key altcoin sectors, including AI.
Current core miner shutdown price: $72,170
The proportion of mining machines operating above the shutdown price has decreased to 5%. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines remains at $60,000, a key price level to watch.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.14
MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). It has remained above two recently, with the market exploring the potential high point for BTC.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 49.23
The BVIV score slightly decreased today, indicating reduced momentum for significant BTC price volatility.
[Market rating]:
The cryptocurrency market saw a broad rebound on April 29, with BTC price briefly surpassing $95,000. On the news side, the US Treasury Secretary stated efforts to promote the domestic Bitcoin mining industry. Additionally, Arizona passed two Bitcoin reserve bills, which, if signed by the governor, could set a precedent for other states. The key support level for BTC is around $91,500. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC continues to fluctuate within the range of $93,000-$95,000, with $96,000 being a significant short-term resistance level. BTC has been repeatedly pushed back each time it approaches this level, but every time it dips, it has not formed a smooth downward trend that breaks the key support at $92,600, indicating that accumulation is still ongoing in the short term. Currently, there is a higher likelihood that BTC will break through $96,000 in the future. The TOTAL3 market cap recently rose to $827.2 billion, indicating an improvement in altcoin sentiment, with a focus on leading projects in the AI sector.
Macro overview
This week marks the beginning of a super data week, with several key US data points that will impact interest rate cut decisions. The first data point is the ADP non-farm payrolls report, known as the "little non-farm," which will be released on April 30. If the employment data is weak or below expectations, it will increase expectations for an interest rate cut. The second data point is the core PCE price index, also released on April 30. This is the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, excluding the volatility of food and energy prices, reflecting the underlying inflation trend in the US. If the core PCE comes in below expectations or close to 2%, it will raise the probability of an interest rate cut. The third data point is the non-farm payrolls report, due on May 2. This is the most important indicator of the US labor market, directly reflecting employment growth, the unemployment rate, and wage changes, which significantly impact the Fed’s interest rate decision and market expectations. If job growth is slow (e.g., below 100,000) or the unemployment rate rises (e.g., above 4.5%), reflecting an economic slowdown or a weak labor market, the probability of an interest rate cut will rise quickly. The unemployment rate is usually included in the report, with 4.5% being the midpoint. If the unemployment rate is above 4.5%, the probability of an interest rate cut increases, and if it is below 4.5%, the probability of a rate cut decreases. Non-farm data and the core PCE together shape expectations for an interest rate cut. ADP is often seen as a leading indicator of non-farm payrolls, but if the two data points diverge, the market tends to trust the non-farm payrolls data more.
Key events
- The MilkyWay Foundation has announced the MILK tokenomics, with a 10% airdrop allocation.
- According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Circle has minted an additional $250 million USDC on the Solana network, bringing the total minted on Solana to $13.25 billion USDC since 2025.
- Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 15,355 BTC at an average price of $92,737.
- Ethereum staking protocol Initia has launched its third version, allowing users to design custom staking strategies around the stETH token.
- Full-chain Rollup L1 network Initia has announced that testnet users can claim their unlocked Jennie tokens.
- Decentralized digital agreement platform Sign has opened the airdrop claim for its $SIGN token.
- According to a report by asset manager CoinShares, total inflows into digital asset investment products last week amounted to $3.4 billion.
- Sui ecosystem’s liquid staking protocol Haedal has launched the airdrop query page.
- According to Whale Alert monitoring, stablecoin issuer Tether has minted an additional one billion USDT on the TRON network.
- According to Hong Kong News, financial services firm Victory Securities has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to launch two virtual asset services.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- WOO X has launched SIGN/USDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.
- Binance Wallet has announced an airdrop of 1,500 SIGN tokens to users with Alpha points of 65 and launched the MilkyWay (MILK) Token Generation Event (TGE), while Binance Alpha has added a limit order feature. Additionally, Binance has introduced JST/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 75x leverage and launched Sign (SIGN) on Binance Wealth Management, One-Click Buy, Flash Exchange Trading Platform, Leverage, and Binance Contracts.
- OKX Crypto Payment App, OKX Pay, is now live, focusing on stablecoin payments.
- Coinbase Asset Management will launch a Bitcoin Yield Fund for non-US institutional investors, targeting 4%-8% annualized returns.
- Bitget has launched SIGN/USDT, TAI/USDT, and JST/USDT perpetual contracts, along with Sign (SIGN) spot trading, while introducing tokens such as SALTMINECOIN (SALT), Motion Community (MOTION), and SOLIDE (SOLIDE) on Bitget Onchain, and exclusively launching La Liga (LALIGA) themed skins.
- Bybit has launched the CLANKER/USDT perpetual contract with up to 20x leverage and the Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL).
- Decentralized exchange PancakeSwap has launched version 4 and rebranded as PancakeSwap Infinity.
Industry landscape
- Ethereum staking protocol Ether.fi has launched a $40 million venture fund, with its first investments in Resolv, Rise Chain, and Symbiotic.
- The Arizona House of Representatives has passed two Bitcoin reserve bills, allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin and creating a digital asset reserve.
- Parallel MPC network Ika has received strategic investment from the Sui Foundation, with total funding exceeding $21 million.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
Short positions are retreating, with long positions dominating, and funds are concentrating on memecoins and mainstream altcoins.
- The performance of the short position portfolio 0xf4…d1d continues to deteriorate, indicating that the short strategy currently has a very low win rate and is continuously being corrected by the market.
- Funds in long positions, such as 0x50…db6, 0xc7…5bc, and 0xc2…740, are concentrating their efforts on memecoins (PEPE, TRUMP, FARTCOIN) and mainstream altcoins (SOL, XRP), with both position size and returns increasing.
The market trend is very clear: memecoin rotation + recovery of mainstream altcoins, with short strategies almost entirely failing.
It is recommended to continue focusing on long positions and chasing strong-performing coins for short-term trading, while also watching if funds continue to spread into other mainstream altcoins.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: The pool has a relatively small fund size and poor liquidity, which may pose risks. Users should invest with caution and conduct their own research.
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