Long positions dominate across small-cap and mainstream tokens
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $92,042 with a liquidation amount of $668 million.
Short position: Liquidation price at $94,769 with a liquidation amount of $434 million.
The current BTC price: $93,799. The $92,000 level can be observed as a price support. Short position liquidation amounts are relatively concentrated, mainly between $94,700 and $95,100.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $1,758.3 with a liquidation amount of $89.99 million.
Short position: Liquidation price at $1,828.3 with a liquidation amount of $613 million.
The current ETH price: $1,779.4. Short liquidation intensity is high and concentrated, with significant liquidation pressure around $1,810 and $1,830, making them key price levels to monitor.
Total stablecoin market cap: $238.9B
The total market cap saw a slight increase on April 28. USDT issued an additional 195.25 million tokens, with a 0.66% increase on Tron and a 0.53% increase on Ethereum.
BTC market cap share: 64.35%
TOTAL3 market cap: $815.12B
BTC’s market share has recently fluctuated around 64%, remaining at a high level. TOTAL3 market cap slightly pulled back on April 28.
Current core miner shutdown price: $72,381
The proportion of mining machines operating above the shutdown price has dropped to 5%. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines remains at $62,000, an important level to monitor.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.18
MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The score has slightly increased again, suggesting a potential price peak may be approaching.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 50.37
The BVIV score showed a slight uptick today but remains fluctuating within a relatively low range, indicating low momentum for significant BTC price volatility.
[Market rating]:
The cryptocurrency market still shows strength across many projects on April 28. This week is critical for BTC, with $96,000 being a key price level to monitor. On the news side, attention should be paid to potential Fed rate cuts and upcoming US macroeconomic data releases. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).
[0–40 Bearish; 40–50 Cautiously Bearish; 50–70 Neutral; 70–80 Cautiously Bullish; 80–100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC liquidity significantly declined over the weekend, with open interest in futures contracts continuously increasing. A large number of short positions were being built up, leading to a negative funding rate. As a result, although BTC’s weekend price action briefly decoupled from external markets, the fragile trading structure made the price more prone to decline on April 27. BTC once surged to 95,769, nearly breaking the critical resistance level at 96,000, but has since pulled back to around 93,000. On the daily chart, two key levels to watch are 92,637 and 90,600. If these levels are broken, it would indicate increasing weakness, suggesting that the uptrend starting from 74,500 has ended, and a deeper correction could follow, potentially falling below 74,500.
Macro overview
According to US digital policy advocacy organization Bitcoin Laws, two Bitcoin reserve bills in Arizona are scheduled for a third reading and possible final vote on Monday local time. If passed, Arizona would become the first US state to pass legislation allowing the government to allocate public funds into Bitcoin reserves, marking a significant step toward formal state-level Bitcoin treasury management. The bills allow up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and require that the state's digital assets be stored in secure, segregated accounts. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, governments worldwide currently hold approximately 523,000 BTC, accounting for 2.5% of the total supply. ETFs and funds hold around 1.31 million BTC (6.2%), public companies hold 746,000 BTC (3.5%), and private companies hold 286,000 BTC (1.36%). Among these, public companies are showing the fastest growth rate, indicating that BTC's penetration among institutions continues to rise.
Key events
- According to DefiLlama data, the stablecoin market capitalization has increased by $4.21 billion over the past seven days, reaching $238.917 billion, with USDT accounting for nearly 62% of the total.
- This week, tokens including SUI, OMNI, and OP will see significant unlock, with a total value of $474.9 million.
- US SEC has approved the ProShares Trust's XRP ETF for public listing on April 30.
- According to Mysten Labs, Sui Wallet, a user-friendly digital wallet developed by Mysten Labs, has merged with Stashed, an unhosted blockchain wallet, to form a multi-platform wallet, Slush.
- According to Reuters, Elon Musk’s xAI is planning to raise $20 billion in funding for its AI startup and social media business.
- Hashdex, a Brazilian crypto asset manager, has launched XRP spot ETF on Brazil's B3 stock exchange.
- Global payments platform Stripe is testing a new stablecoin product, with applications open to companies outside the US, EU, and UK.
- Jupiter DAO has published a proposal titled "The Next Two Years: DAO Resolution," outlining support from the Jupiter team to help the DAO move towards independence, including establishing a clear proposal generation process.
- According to OKX Ventures, Sui TVL (Total Value Locked) grew by 38% over the past week, reaching $1.645 billion.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- WOO X has listed SKYAI (SKYAI), Lumo-8B-Instruct (LUMO), and Italian Brainrot (ITALIANROT) in Swap Spotlight.
- Bitget Onchain has listed several memecoins, including Trust in Nom (NOM), Rent is Due (RENTCOIN), Not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET), Let's BONK (LetsBONK), Hosico Cat (HOSICO), MyCryptoProtocol (MCP), and OKZOO (AIOT); Bitget Pre-market has listed Sign (SIGN). Additionally, Bitget has launched FIS/USDT and DARK/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage and listed DeepBook Protocol (DEEP).
- Bybit has launched the DARK/USDT perpetual contract with up to 20x leverage.
- Binance Alpha will launch Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) on April 29, and Binance has announced listing and delisting standards for products including Binance Alpha, Binance Futures, and Binance Spot, while Binance HODLer Drop has launched Sign (SIGN), Binance Wallet’s TGE project OKZOO (AIOT) has been oversubscribed by 500 times, and Binance has launched MEMEFI/USDT and FIS/USDT perpetual contracts.
- According to @ai_9684xtpa, market maker Wintermute has transferred over 5.19 million LAYER tokens from Binance to OKX to provide liquidity.
- OKX has launched Solayer (LAYER).
Industry landscape
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Deputy Chief Executive, Chan Wai-man, stated that the HKMA has assisted the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government in issuing tokenized bonds twice, utilizing blockchain technology to reduce costs, expedite processes, and mitigate risks.
- Venture capital firm Paradigm has invested $50 million in decentralized AI project Nous Research, valuing its token at $1 billion.
- According to Bitcoin Laws, Arizona's Bitcoin Reserve Bill, SB 1373, has navigated through the House Committee of the Whole and is now poised for a final vote.
- The development team of Manus has completed a $75 million funding round, led by Benchmark.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
On April 28, the market experienced significant changes. Some smart money short positions suffered notable losses, with capital shifting towards defensive strategies or profit-taking, while long positions in both small-cap and mainstream tokens continued to dominate.
Address 0xb3…06f recorded a major loss on a single asset, with the TRUMP short position incurring a floating loss of -$470,000 USDT (ROE -75.52%). The seven-day PnL also dropped sharply to -$310,000, making it the primary drag on the account. Other positions, such as the BTC long (ROE 205%) and the PURR short (195%), remained stable, while the HYPE short continued to yield a 55% return. However, the overall capital allocation has shifted from aggressive trading to more defensive holdings.
Address 0xf4…d1d also began to see errors in its short strategies, particularly with the VIRTUAL short turning into a loss (-45%). Although the HYPE short maintained a 64% profit, the overall seven-day PnL was still negative (-$48,000 USDT). Notably, a small XRP short position also showed a slight loss, indicating increasing pressure on continuous short-selling strategies.
Overall, long positions remain dominant and market rotation is accelerating, while short positions are more suited for selective, short-term strategies. The market trend currently favors the long side.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: The pool size is relatively small, and the reward tokens are subject to price fluctuations. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.
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