Gold boosts BTC amid risk-off shift in dollar, equities
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $86,623 with a liquidation amount of $1.004 billion.
Short position: Liquidation price at $88,973 with a liquidation amount of $398 million.
The current BTC price: $88,162. The liquidation amount for long positions is larger, with $86,000 serving as an important support level to observe. The liquidation amount for short positions is more concentrated, mainly around $89,000.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long position: Liquidation price at $1,563 with a liquidation amount of $90.64 million.
Short position: Liquidation price at $1,608 with a liquidation amount of $607 million.
The current ETH price: $1,578.6. The liquidation intensity for short positions is large and concentrated, with significant liquidation amounts between $1,593 and $1,610, indicating a clear bearish sentiment for ETH in the market. Long position risk is relatively manageable.
Total stablecoin market cap: $234.86B
The total market cap has slightly increased, with minimal overall changes. USDC issued an additional 34.46 million coins, with a 0.95% increase on Solana. USDT issued an additional 50.33 million coins, with a 1.54% increase on Tron.
BTC market cap Share: 64.57%
TOTAL3 market cap: $770.01B
BTC's market cap share has risen again and remains high. After BTC broke through $87,000, the TOTAL3 market cap decreased by $4 billion, with the market still focusing on BTC. Other sectors saw slight increases yesterday but have mostly experienced corrections today. The current SOL/ETH exchange rate is 0.088, reaching a historical high.
Core miner shutdown price: $75,305.6
The proportion of miners above the shutdown price has decreased to 17%, with the average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines at $72,000. This is an important price level to monitor.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.80
MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market value) and the actual value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The MVRV-Z score has shown no significant changes in the past two days.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 52.05
The BVIV score has slightly increased today, but the index remains in a relatively neutral and low range, similar to the level at the end of March.
[Market rating]
On the evening of April 21, Donald Trump once again called on Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. On the morning of April 22, the SEC officially announced that Paul S. Atkins has formally assumed office as the 34th Commissioner of the US SEC. This has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and it is expected that Atkins will review numerous cryptocurrency ETF applications following his appointment. However, due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies, market sentiment has turned more risk-averse. All USD-denominated assets have experienced declines due to events related to Powell. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 85 (Bullish).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
BTC continues to set new phase highs alongside gold, with BTC reaching a peak of $88,814 and gold hitting $3,484. A pattern has emerged: in the absence of positive catalysts from external markets, US stocks continue to decline, and BTC follows the downtrend, although its pullback is relatively limited. The decline in US equities and the US dollar has triggered a rise in risk-averse sentiment, pushing gold and gold-backed tokens higher, which in turn has driven a rebound in BTC. From a technical perspective, BTC's upward trend is not yet over. The key resistance zone lies between $92,000 and $96,000, which is the previous high-volume accumulation area. Close attention should be paid to changes in BTC's market dominance, and any abnormal movements across altcoins should be monitored.
Macro overview
The tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States have been challenging, highlighting the difficulty for trade surplus countries to make substantial concessions on core interests. Much of the discussion remains at the strategic level, focusing on extending existing tariff deadlines. The key factor for the market is still whether there will be a breakthrough in negotiations between China and the United States, as this holds the greatest potential to stimulate market sentiment. Additionally, the sharp rally in gold continues to be linked to rising expectations of a US economic recession. Although most legal scholars believe the US President cannot easily dismiss the Federal Reserve Chair, such speculation has already dealt new blows to US assets, further fueling investor doubts about US Treasury bonds as the premier safe-haven asset.
Key events
- AI full-chain tool Wayfinder has released its roadmap for May to July 2025, with the Alpha version set to launch in June and support for fiat currency entry.
- The decentralized stablecoin protocol Usual has launched an ecosystem rewards day vote, where those who vote within the next 24 hours will receive an advance allocation of treasury funds.
- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has tweeted that 72 crypto exchange-traded funds are waiting for approval from the US SEC.
- The Movement Network Foundation has announced a third-party review of the abnormalities with external market makers, commissioning Groom Lake, a professional intelligence agency in the digital asset field, to carry out the review.
- The decentralized organization Hyperlane Foundation has tweeted that the Hyperlane(HYPER) airdrop will be available for claiming on April 22 at 20:00.
- The full-chain Rollup L1 network Initia has released the its tokenomics, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens, 5% of which is allocated for an airdrop.
- The on-chain token distribution protocol Sign has released its tokenomics, stating that 10% will be airdropped at TGE, with the snapshot occurring on April 25.
- John Patrick Mullin, founder and CEO of MANTRA, has announced the burn of his allocated 150 million OM tokens, aiming to restore trust and reinforce the project’s long-term commitment to transparency and community-driven growth.
- Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) has bought $555.8 million worth of Bitcoin.
- According to Whale Alert monitoring, USDC Treasury has minted an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana chain.
- Stablecoin issuer Circle will launch a new payment and remittance network to enable real-time settlement of cross-border transactions in stablecoins.
- According to Whale Alert monitoring, USDT issuer Tether has minted 1 billion USDT on the Tron.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Coinbase has launched the self-service retrieval function for Solana chain SPL assets and announced support for trading Reserve Rights (RSR) tokens on the Base network.
- Binance has transferred multiple Alpha account tokens, including BIGTIME, VIRTUAL, ONDO, TUT, MUBARAK, and BROCCOLI, to their spot accounts, while Binance Alpha has launched SPX6900 (SPX), Mog Coin (MOG), Popcat (POPCAT), and Milady Cult Coin (CULT), and will launch Zora (ZORA) on April 23, distributing 4,276 ZORA airdrops to eligible users. Additionally, Binance Wallet has launched the Hyperlane (HYPER) token generation event (TGE) and the Binance HODLer airdrop, along with the launch of Hyperlane (HYPER) spot trading.
- Bitget will launch the Launchpool project Zora (ZORA), locking BGB and ZORA to earn 26.83 million ZORA, while also launching the Bitget Onchain web version, Bitget PoolX and CandyBomb with BALANCE (EPT) and a total prize pool of 12.425 million EPT, and on-chain trading for tokens including Broccoli, RRR, and TROLL, alongside rolling back VOXEL/USDT trades with a deduction order of spot, contract balance, and contract positions.
- Decentralized exchange PancakeSwap has announced that CAKE tokenomics 3.0 will be implemented on April 23.
Industry landscape
- According to the CFTC's official website announcement, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking public comment on allowing 24/7 trading in derivatives markets.
- According to Reuters, Paul S. Atkins has taken office as Chairman of the US SEC.
- According to the Wall Street Journal, crypto companies Circle and BitGo are planning to apply for bank charters or licenses.
- Decentralized AI platform ORO AI has completed a $6 million seed funding round, led by a16z CSX.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
Today's market showed a slightly bullish consolidation pattern, with short positions taking profits and some smart money shifting toward long positions.
Results tracked as of April 22 indicate that most addresses still primarily hold short positions. However, overall return levels continue to decline. Some wallets have recorded consistent losses over the past seven days, rendering them no longer useful as reference points. It is recommended to adjust the smart money watchlist accordingly.
Address 0xb3…06f remains the largest short-position holder, maintaining a position of 137,133 HYPE tokens. Although it has an unrealized gain of about 40%, its seven-day PnL has suffered a loss of over 200,000 USDT. This suggests that while the long-term position has been profitable, recent trading decisions require reassessment. Other shorts such as PURR, BNB, and MNT continue to yield stable returns, but the overall ROE growth has slowed, showing signs of weakness.
On the other hand, 0xe0…411 has seen a significant deterioration in recent performance. Its short positions in HYPE and FARTCOIN are both in a floating loss, with a seven-day PnL loss of 100,000 USDT. After several consecutive days of poor performance, this address is recommended for removal from the smart money list.
0xf4…d1d still holds a small short position in HYPE with an ROE of 50%. Overall, its PnL remains stable, and its additional short positions in VIRTUAL, WLD, and USUAL maintain high ROEs, indicating that this address's trading strategy still has some reference value.
Notably, there has been a structural shift on the long side. 0xc7…5bc currently holds profitable long positions in BTC and SOL, with BTC ROE at 73.69% and SOL ROE at 16.67%. Its seven-day PnL is also positive (+24,893 USDT), making it the most consistently performing long-position wallet recently. It is recommended for inclusion in the new wave of key watchlist addresses.
0xcc…ab1 and 0x3c…fb0 have had no positions for a long time and have shown weak PnL performance. They may also be removed from the list to reduce noise in observations.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: The price volatility of incentive tokens may affect actual returns. Users should invest cautiously and conduct their own research.
Disclaimer
The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments.
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