ENA and SPX holders may hint at short-term strength
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $107,953 with a liquidation amount of $1.057 billion.
Short positions at $111,343 with a liquidation amount of $1.912 billion.
The current BTC price: $108,703; the short position liquidation intensity is high and concentrated, with strong liquidation pressure around $111,300.
ETH core liquidation positions:
Long positions at $2,607 with a liquidation amount of $778 million.
Short positions at $2,714.3 with a liquidation amount of $495 million.
The current Ethereum price: $2,634.7, the long position liquidation intensity is high, with significant liquidation amounts around $2,610, making it a key price point to monitor.
Total stablecoin market cap: $247.434 billion
On May 28, the total market cap saw a slight increase. USDT issued an additional $208.99 million, with a 0.66% increase on Arbitrum and a 1.47% increase on Polygon.
BTC market share: 63.96%
TOTAL 3 market cap: $899.4 billion
BTC’s market share has dropped below 64% and is fluctuating within a narrow range. The total market cap of TOTAL3 has slightly increased. If the continued decline in dominance and the breakout of certain altcoins continue, it may signal an early rotation.
Current core miner shutdown price: $60,583
Miner shutdown coin prices are currently below BTC’s current price. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining rigs is $60,000, which can be used as a key price point for observation.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.64
The MVRV is the ratio of the minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (the total value of all BTC at their last movement). This indicates that investor confidence is still increasing, but the MVRV-Z score is gradually approaching the "critical zone."
Bitcoin BVIV score: 46.91
The BVIV score has fallen below 50 and is fluctuating, indicating medium volatility. The market is active, and there is some speculation.
[Market rating]
On the afternoon of May 27, the price dropped to above $107,500 but didn’t break key support levels. Later in the evening, it surged, reaching above $110,000, indicating a strong market. It has since retraced and is currently fluctuating below $109,000. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).
[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]
Market overview
From the 15-minute timeframe, BTC's key cost zone is around 108,900. As long as it stays above this range, even if it dips below during the day, as long as it pulls back, there is no need to worry about BTC's downside expanding. This movement could be similar to the previous range around 103,000, where one scenario could be consolidation and oscillation near 109,000, leading to the majority of positions being concentrated between 108,000 and 109,000. This could result in a false breakdown that shakes out high-leverage long positions before a rally. Another scenario is a true breakdown below the 108,000 cost zone, potentially leading to a further drop towards the next cost zone around 103,500. However, the degree of the drop could expand at any time, and the future range of adjustment is uncertain. After the adjustment, BTC would continue to rise. On May 27, ETH showed stronger momentum than BTC, but it has not yet detached from BTC’s influence. If BTC weakens, ETH will follow. We need to continue closely watching the 2,750 level for ETH, as it must break and hold above this level to accelerate its upward movement. Currently, BTC's market share has slightly decreased to 64%.
Macro overview
Bitwise's CEO, Hunter Horsley, stated at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference that if wealth management institutions allocate 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, it would bring “hundreds of billions of dollars” in inflows to the Bitcoin market. A spokesperson from asset management giant BlackRock also stated at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference that they recommend allocating 2% of portfolios to Bitcoin. Currently, the penetration of BTC in listed companies, institutions, and private companies ranges between 1%-5%, but its overall asset allocation is still below 1%, and its investment proportion in major wealth management firms is even lower. However, with continued increases in Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holdings by BlackRock’s "Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio" and similar trends, it is estimated that BTC's share of funds in top-tier asset management institutions will grow to the 0.5%-1% range. The asset share in private companies is expected to rise to 1%, and the penetration rate in public companies could reach 2%. The increased buying by asset management giants will further push BTC towards the $150,000-$200,000 range.
Key events
- According to the Snapshot voting page, the Bio Protocol community has voted to postpone the unlocking of 4.23% of the total supply of BIO tokens, originally scheduled for May 28, to November 15, with a linear release over six months.
- Self-developed IP L1 blockchain Camp Network announced that it will allocate 0.25% of CAMP tokens to its yappers and Kaito ecosystem.
- According to Golden Finance, Trump Media & Technology Group dropped nearly 12%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 10, but later rose more than 7% in pre-market US stock trading, according to Golden Finance.
- US SEC is initiating further review procedures for WisdomTree’s XRP spot ETF.
- Asset management company Strive Asset Management has completed a $750 million private equity investment (PIPE) funding round, intended to enhance its Bitcoin strategy.
- Crypto investor Cobie’s Echo has launched a new ICO platform, Sonar, with Plasma, a stablecoin-dedicated chain, as its first fundraising project.
- Stable issuer Circle has applied to list on the NYSE under the ticker symbol “CRCL”.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- Binance Alpha has launched Puffverse Token (PFVS), with an FDV of $134 million, and will distribute 875 PFVS tokens to users with an Alpha score of 204, while also launching Elderglade (ELDE).
- Bitget Wallet has integrated with the LINE Dapp platform and plans to launch a user incentive campaign in June, while also launching income-bearing asset certificates, BGUSD, with daily compound interest support.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid smart money tracking
Overall, on May 28, the three major accounts didn’t show significant reduction in positions, instead opting to "hold and wait for a rebound."
ENA and SPX were the strongest rebounding assets on May 28, with portfolio ROE turning from a large loss to a gain, indicating a stabilization of market confidence.
Although BTC had heavy losses, the loss margin decreased, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term.
Memecoins like TURBO and LAUNCHCOIN continued to operate inefficiently, with higher risks.
Summary: Monitor whether the main players continue to increase positions in ENA and SPX. If holdings expand, it could signal a short-term strong asset trend.
If BTC holdings continue to reduce losses, it may indicate the early stage of a market reversal, with potential signals for position adjustments.
Memecoin positions may not be pursued unless there is evidence of major players re-entering at lower levels or a new narrative driving momentum.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.
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