Diverging signals point to a potential BTC breakout

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:

Long position: Liquidation price at $93,478 with a liquidation amount of $735 million.

Short position: Liquidation price at $95,830 with a liquidation amount of $875 millionThe current BTC price is $94,648, with $93,000 as a potential price support. Short position liquidation amounts are relatively concentrated, and the liquidation amounts are large, so liquidation risk should be monitored.

ETH core liquidation positions:

Long position: Liquidation price at $1,779.2 with a liquidation amount of $106 million.

Short position: Liquidation price at $1,851.2 with a liquidation amount of $810 millionThe current ETH price is $1,802.3, with strong and concentrated short position liquidation and large liquidation amounts. Short position risk is relatively controllable, with liquidation intensity more spread out.

Total stablecoin market cap: $241.9B

The total market cap saw a slight increase today. USDT issued an additional 293.79M tokens. Notably, the Donald Trump family project WLFI issued 193% more USD1, totaling $1.4 billion.

BTC market cap share: 64.46%

TOTAL3 market cap: $817.3BBTC's market share slightly increased today, remaining at a high level. TOTAL3 market cap saw a slight decrease on April 30, dropping by about $7 billion.

Current core miner shutdown price: $72,258

The proportion of mining machines operating above the shutdown price has decreased to 5%. The average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines is currently at $60,000, which is a key price level to monitor.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 2.19

MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market cap) and the realized value (total value of all BTC when last moved). The index has risen further, and a potential high point for BTC may be approaching.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 47.87

The BVIV score has decreased slightly on April 30, reaching a near six-month low, which could indicate upcoming BTC volatility.

[Market rating]:

On April 30, the cryptocurrency market experienced a volatile trend. US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed hopes for long-term tariff revenue and agreements. Additionally, the SEC delayed its decision to approve the Franklin XRP Spot ETF and the Bitwise Spot DOGE ETF applications. BTC is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the current bull/bear sentiment score is 90 (Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

BTC continues to experience volatility, forming a consolidation range between $93,000 and $95,000 since April 25, building momentum for a potential breakout. BTC ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for over a week, with a total inflow of more than $370 million, while large traders on exchanges continue to short BTC.  Additionally, the average funding rate for BTC has rarely been negative over the past week, which is rare, indicating intense whale activity both on and off exchanges. Notably, over the past two years, the financing rate for Bitcoin contracts has been negative only four times, occurring during the periods of September 19-22, 2023, October 20-27, 2023, August 16-24, 2024, and September 10-17, 2024. Following these periods of negative financing rates, BTC experienced strong upward trends. Close attention should be paid to the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s ADP and PCE data.

Macro overview

As of April 30, the market predicts a 92% probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged on May 7, with a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June. A total of three rate cuts are expected in 2025. Before the market experiences liquidity easing, stablecoins like USDT and USDC have been rapidly issued since October 2023. USDT has increased from $83.5 billion to $148 billion, and USDC has increased from $25.3 billion to $62.1 billion. This reflects the rising demand for cryptocurrency market trading, with stablecoin issuers adjusting according to market needs to provide more liquidity. As institutional demand for BTC continues to grow, the supply of stablecoins in the market will also increase.

Key events

• Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) is planning to launch a utility token and crypto wallet to monetize its streaming platform, Truth Social, and expand its streaming services, while the Trump Organization has launched a $1 billion real estate project in Dubai, accepting cryptocurrency payments.
• US exchange Nasdaq has filed with the SEC for the listing of the 21Shares DOGE Spot ETF.
• Celestia ecosystem liquidity staking protocol MilkyWay has opened its airdrop claims.
• Stablecoin issuer Circle has announced it has received In-Principle Approval (IPA) from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) of ADGM to operate as a money services provider.
• Multi-chain DEX aggregator 1inch has expanded its services to the Solana network, allowing users to trade over one million Solana-based tokens directly through the 1inch decentralized application (DApp).
• Decentralized perpetual contract protocol Hyperliquid will launch a new fee system and staking tiers on May 5.
• Liquidity re-staking protocol Renzo has announced the opening of the Season 4 airdrop claim.
• According to Bitcoin Magazine, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has stated that the United States will "make every effort to promote the development of the Bitcoin mining industry in the country."

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	MvG Popular event meme	"100 Men vs. 1 Gorilla" is a hypothetical debate narrative that went viral in late April 2025, discussing who would win in a life-or-death battle between 100 human men and a silverback gorilla. The topic quickly spread through memes, funny videos, and simulated battle scenes (such as AI-generated images of humans fighting gorillas), with celebrities like YouTuber MrBeast and Elon Musk further fueling the hype.	5.9 million
	SQUID AI concept project	Squidllora is a decentralized AI trading agent project based on Allora Network, focused on automating cryptocurrency trading through smart contracts and AI-driven strategies. The goal is to deploy through @autofun, where trading fees are used to repurchase and burn $SQUID tokens, increasing the token's scarcity.	2.3 million
	Hodler Popular event meme	The narrative of "The Little Hodler" token ($The Little Hodler) mainly revolves around the "HODL" concept in cryptocurrency culture, combining the fun of memecoins and the community-driven nature. Recently, El Salvador launched a new series of textbooks titled "What is Money?" for second and third-grade students in 50 public schools across the country, aligning with the concept of The Little Hodler.	1.6 million
	HOUSE Community meme	$HOUSE is a memecoin based on the Solana blockchain, aimed at expressing dissatisfaction with the modern real estate market’s "inaccessibility." It humorously and sarcastically challenges traditional notions of homeownership with a bold slogan: "1 Housecoin = 1 House." This narrative is not only a satirical commentary on high property prices but also attempts to attract members of the community who feel frustrated with the current real estate situation, creating a symbol of resistance.	92.2 million

Exchange updates

• Binance.US has listed Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), while Binance Wallet has announced its next TGE project, L2 scaling solution B² Network (B2), and the participation threshold for the MilkyWay (MILK) TGE, requiring 75 Alpha points, with Binance Alpha also listing MilkyWay (MILK). Additionally, Binance is offering an airdrop of 356 HAEDAL tokens to users with 80 Alpha points.
• Bitget has listed HAEDAL/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage, supported one-click cross-chain transactions for popular Sui chain assets on Bitget Wallet, listed Haedal Protocol (HAEDAL) and MilkyWay (MILK), and launched GRASSITO (Grassito), SuperFriend (SUPFRIEND), and Dupe (DUPE) on Bitget Onchain trading.
• According to KOL Elja's data, Binance Wallet’s trading volume market share has reached a new high of 57.3%.

Industry landscape

• According to CNBC, the UK Treasury is planning to collaborate with the US to drive innovation in the crypto industry.
• Blockchain company  Unto Labs has completed a $14.4 million funding round, led by Framework Ventures and Electric Capital.
• L1 blockchain Camp Network has raised $25 million in a Series A funding round, led by 1kx and Blockchain Capital.
• According to govinfo.gov, US Senator Bernie Moreno proposed the "2025 US Blockchain Deployment Act" on April 10, aiming to require the Secretary of Commerce to support the United States' global leadership in blockchain technology deployment, application, and competitiveness. 
• Privacy blockchain  Miden has completed a $25 million funding round, led by a16z.

Emerging projects

Token	SQUID	MvG	Stablecoin
Description	SQUID combines the image of squid tentacles with AI trading agent strategies to create a magical realism narrative of marine life controlling quantitative trading, with the core focus on the contrasting cuteness brought by technological anthropomorphism.	The narrative of virtual land competition built around real estate investment establishes a token ecosystem connection through the underlying logic of "land first, then build houses," forming a builder's universe alongside $HOUSE. Some users attempt to position #pension as a paternal asset, creating a cultural metaphor of intergenerational token inheritance.	By ironically critiquing the zero-yield status of traditional stablecoins, the "super stablecoin" meme narrative is built, focusing on deconstructing the contradiction between cryptocurrency market volatility and value storage. This is achieved through the alienation of the stablecoin concept, forming a dark humor cultural resonance.
Price	$0.003056	$0.002961	$0.0013999
Market Cap（$)	3.05 million	2.96	1.39 million
Token Holders	2,696	4,418	871

Token	JSS	BIOS	SHEKEL
Description	An AI-driven agent-based ecosystem is built for cryptocurrency trading collective intelligence, incentivizing AI strategy development and collaboration through token economics. The core meme is the narrative of "AI trading agents + collective intelligence" as a technological empowerment, with a cultural focus on developer tools and on-chain collaborative ecosystems.	BasisOS is the first AI-driven agent that manages DeFi protocols and can automatically execute foundational trading strategies on Hyperliquid to generate real-world profits. It handles everything from analyzing market conditions and managing risks to optimizing trades.	AI Smart Investment Fund Launchpad. Kosher Capital is a DeFAI infrastructure project that allows users to create their own investment funds without external permission, which can be managed either by themselves or entirely by autonomous agents.
Price	$0.001085	$0.006106	$0.005799
Market Cap（$)	1.08 million	6.1 million	5.79 million
Token Holders	1,210	1,234	5,305

Hyperliquid smart oney tracking

Long positions are profiting from high-level consolidation, while short positions are showing weak momentum, signaling a market entry into a wait-and-see period.

Smart money’s overall position remains unchanged, indicating that major capital is in a short-term consolidation phase, with no signs of profit-taking or a reversal.

The ROE of long positions remains high, but the seven-day PnL shows no significant growth, indicating that capital has not further pushed positions, and short-term momentum has slightly weakened.

Short strategies continue to be weak, with empty positions in assets like VIRTUAL still facing deep losses. Only individual assets including WLD and HYPE have some reference value.

Operational suggestion: The strategy could remain bullish, but be cautious of rotation and pullbacks after short-term overheating. Focus could be on tracking whether new wallets enter or if there are signs of fund reallocation.

Address	Trading pair	Token quantity	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL&Unrealized profit and loss
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	-3,992.59	14,656.01 (49.91%)	-63,627/ 220,795
	VIRTUAL	-41,460	-15,401.6 (-189.24%)
	WLD	-60,000.6	167,530.01 (722.75%)
	USUAL	-149,972.7	3,647.83 (79.48%)
	XRP	-5,000	-374 (69.37%)
0xc7…5bc	BTC	+11.3857	86,952.08 (131.94%)	-4,137/ 88,437
	SOL	+3,224.16	4,983.39 (10.7%)
	AAVE	+2,170.83	-3,658.74 (-10.13%)
0x50…db6	PEPE	+3,943,484,432	5,163,249.07 (173.84%)	6,051,548/ 13,659,943
	FARTCOIN	+11,801,000	2,262,383.89 (105.52%)
	TRUMP	+1,820,783	6,039,154.32 (343.81%)
	XRP	+2,849,845	123,307.85 (19.72%)
	AIXBT	+1,245,038	33,506.45 (106.63%)
0xc2…740	FARTCOIN	+15,704,310	1,985,633.23 (26.12%)	301,351/ 1,786,445
	XRP	+5,178,131	141,115.52 (6.03%)
0x32…812	SOL	+16,137.56	551,347.25 (122.22%)	987,098/ 551,347

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	NAVI Protocol（Blockchain：Sui） ←→ Token：USDC
Participation Method	From the NAVI Protocol website, go to the Market, connect a wallet that supports Sui, and deposit USDC to participate in supply.
Project Information	NAVI Protocol: A native all-in-one liquidity protocol on Sui.
Earnings Details	Token: USDC APY: 5.357% (Yield may fluctuate)
Product Data	Token: USDC Total supply: 65.45M Total borrowed: 12.48M Capital utilization Rate: 50.99% Available liquidity: 32M

Risk: Users should exercise caution when investing and conduct their own research.

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