Apr 16, 2025

BTC's correlation to US tariff news could diminish

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation levels

Long positions: Liquidation price at $83,042 with a liquidation amount of $189 million.

Short positions: Liquidation price at $86,609 with a liquidation amount of $1.672 billion.

The current BTC price is $83,705. Short liquidation is concentrated at $86,609 with a large amount, and there are also strong liquidation clusters at $84,608 and $85,739. Long liquidation risk is relatively controllable, and the $83,000 and $82,000 levels can be monitored as short‑term support points.

ETH core liquidation levels

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,575.20 with a liquidation amount of $121 million.

Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,641.50 with a total liquidation amount of $487 million.

The current ETH price is $1,593.60.

Short liquidation intensity is high and concentrated around $1,640 with a large amount, making it a key level to watch as support. Long liquidation risk remains relatively controllable.

Total stablecoin market cap: $234.096B

The total has edged up slightly. USDT, USDC, DAI, and USDS have all seen small increases in supply. USDC on Ethereum rose by 0.34% and on Solana by 1.33%.

BTC market cap share: 63.79%

TOTAL3 market cap: $751.21B

BTC dominance has climbed back to 64%. TOTAL3 fell yesterday but has rebounded modestly today.

Current miner shutdown price: $53,318.18

Approximately 35% of miners are operating above their shutdown price. Mainstream miners have shutdown costs around $59,000, which should be closely watched. BTC price rallied again this morning.

Bitcoin MVRV‑Z score: 1.78

The ratio of minimum market value (current market cap) to realized value (the sum of values when all BTC were last moved). The MVRV‑Z score has risen recently, indicating a gradual increase in the market valuation of BTC, though not at an extreme level.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 53.35

Down from yesterday’s 55.44, suggesting a reduced likelihood of significant BTC price volatility.

[Market rating]

The EU expects most US tariffs on the bloc to remain in place, and negotiations appear deadlocked. This news drove US equities lower and prompted a pullback in the crypto market, though BTC has held up relatively well, trading above $83,000. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 60 (Neutral).

[0–40: Bearish; 40–50: Cautiously Bearish; 50–70: Neutral; 70–80: Cautiously Bullish; 80–100: Bullish]

Market overview

BTC continued to outpace the US stock market and once surged to 86,443. However, as the US stocks pulled back, BTC also retreated and ultimately failed to hold above 86,000. This indicates that the 85,000 to 86,000 range is a core resistance level and that BTC is very likely to continue building momentum through a retracement to break out. The current focus is on whether the level at 83,700 can be breached; if it is, BTC may further retrace to 82,000 in search of support.

Macro overview

On April 15, during US trading hours, unexpected news emerged that negotiations between the EU and the US had made little progress, with the EU expecting the US to maintain its tariff policies. This drove continuous declines in both the US stock market and BTC. Donald Trump continues to maintain his tough stance on tariffs, while the US Treasury Secretary has worked to ease expectations. Last night, he stated that the high tariffs imposed on China are not sustainable in the long term and remarked that no one wants them to remain indefinitely. He hinted that a major agreement might be reached in the future, and he also revealed that the US is rapidly advancing negotiations on equivalent tariffs with some allies, urging other countries to start trade talks as soon as possible. Tariff policies, as an unstable factor, will continue to impact the US stock market and BTC, but the effect will gradually align with investors’ future expectations, meaning that its influence will slowly diminish.

Key events

Decentralized protocol Ethena Labs has partnered with stablecoin company Plasma, and USDe earnings will go live when its mainnet test version is released.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet has announced the issuance of $10 million worth of interest-free ordinary bonds to increase its holdings of Bitcoin.
USDC will launch simultaneously on the Monad mainnet on the first day.
MANTRA CEO John Mullin has tweeted that a post-event analysis report on the OM volatility event will be released alongside OM buyback and supply‑burn plans, and he has pledged to burn all OM tokens he holds.
According to Fortune, Donald Trump is preparing to launch a real estate crypto game centered on his brand.
Brazilian publicly traded company Meliuz has proposed expanding its Bitcoin reserves strategy, aiming to make the cryptocurrency the main strategic asset in the firm's treasury.
BSC chain AI meme project FreeDogs has launched its first airdrop.
Distributed validation infrastructure Obol is expected to hold its Token Generation Event (TGE) on May 15.
According to SolanaFloor, Solana has completed the implementation of the SIMD‑0207 upgrade proposal, increasing block capacity by 4%.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	ARDR Token movement	Ardor is a multi‑chain blockchain platform developed and maintained by Jelurida, designed to offer “Blockchain‑as‑a‑Service” (BaaS) solutions. It employs a parent‑chain/child‑chain architecture: the parent chain handles network security and consensus, while child chains can be customized by enterprises or individuals to run decentralized applications (DApps) or issue their own tokens. Recently, ARDR has experienced sustained price gains.	141 million
	AIDOGE Token movement	IDOGE officially launched on April 15, 2023. It was developed by a team that calls itself "AI entities" and focuses on the Arbitrum ecosystem. The project distributes tokens through large-scale airdrops with no ICO or team allocation, emphasizing community fairness. Recently, the token has been continuously rising.	32.47 million
	GFI Token movement	Goldfinch uses blockchain technology to bring private‑credit products from traditional finance on‑chain, primarily serving enterprises and fintech firms in emerging markets while offering high‑yield opportunities to investors. Its flagship product, Goldfinch Prime, on‑boards top private‑credit funds (such as Ares, Apollo, and KKR) onto the blockchain, managing over $1 trillion in assets.	70 million
	PUMP Babylon ecosystem project	PumpBTC is a liquid‑staking solution built on the Babylon protocol, aimed at helping BTC holders earn yield through staking while maintaining liquidity. It brings DeFi capabilities to the Bitcoin ecosystem with the goal of “rebuilding WBTC with native yield.” By simplifying the staking process and offering multi‑chain support, PumpBTC seeks to expand Bitcoin’s use cases in DeFi. The token is currently on an upward trajectory.	40 million
	FUR Recently viral meme	The FUR token reached a peak market capitalization of $6 million, drawing significant attention on social media and exchanges. Users have been sharing “#fur logo” posts in which major exchanges, media outlets, and wallets restyle their logos in a Ghibli‑inspired aesthetic, prompting widespread reposting and engagement.	4 million

Exchange updates

WOO X has listed WCT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 10x leverage.
OKX is expanding its cryptocurrency exchange services to the US and setting up a new headquarters in California.
Bitget has launched WCT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 75x leverage, partnered with Barcelona winger Raphinha to release a new advertisement showcasing the ingenious integration of sports and trading strategies, added tokens including DB, Ethard, and memecoins on its on‑chain trading platform, and launched WalletConnect (WCT) through PoolX and CandyBomb with a total airdrop pool of 800,000 WCT.
Binance has added WalletConnect (WCT) to Binance Simple Earn, "Buy Crypto", Binance Convert, Binance Margin, and Binance Futures, adjusted its DeFi Composite Index in Binance Futures by removing BAL and adding ENA, and launched a new reward-bearing margin asset, LDUSDT.
According to CoinDesk, several exchanges including Binance were impacted by a temporary network outage at an AWS data center.
Solana ecosystem DEX Jupiter has launched the Jupiter Pro for professional investors to offer advanced analytics, risk management solutions, and customized investment strategies.

Industry landscape

Full‑stack application Embr has completed a $1.75 million funding round, participated in by Lattice Fund.
Nasdaq‑listed miner CleanSpark has announced it secured a $200 million credit facility from Coinbase Prime.
USDT issuer Tether has announced a strategic investment in Fizen, a self‑custody crypto wallet and digital payments fintech company.

Emerging projects

Token	Fur	time	PVS
Description	The narrative is built around brand collaborations and viral marketing, leveraging successful cases such as $Ghibli to create a "cute brand token" image. Its core cultural characteristics are reflected in the lightweight replication of popular symbols and the capture of social media trends. Currently, many projects have released Fur-style logos, including Ton, Coingecko, HTX, and Huma.	A meme has been constructed around Musk's remark, "Time is the best currency," grafting the concept of cryptocurrency onto celebrity quotes. The tweet originates from an anonymous marketing account that lacks original cultural DNA, relying primarily on price surges to grab attention while its narrative core remains weak.	It is the native token of the Paraverse ecosystem, providing decentralized cloud rendering and Web3 trading infrastructure for XR and 3D assets. Its core product, LarkXR, supports the UE5.5 engine, 8K resolution streaming, and WebXR development. Through its modular architecture, it reduces enterprise deployment costs and enhances the efficiency of 3D application distribution. To date, the platform has integrated over 200 projects and, in 2024, will add more than 50 enterprise clients.
Price	$0.00377	$0.001132	$0.008742
Market Cap（$）	3.77 million	1.13 million	8.74 million
Token Holders	9,255	3,007	7,015

Token	LENS	TIAI	BOOK
Description	Lens is a specialized browser that allows you to view multiple websites simultaneously in an organized layout. You can save customized workspaces to the cloud and access them from anywhere. Enhanced security and privacy features protect your browsing experience.	AI robotics technology is deeply integrated with agricultural scenarios, forming a revenue-sharing mechanism through blockchain connection of physical agricultural devices. The core narrative is the on-chain application of "Robots as a Service" in the agricultural sector, combining the concepts of RWA (Real World Assets) and AI.	$BOOK builds its narrative around the tokenization of knowledge, combining book NFTs with DeFi protocols, and emphasizing decentralized libraries and knowledge ownership. The ecosystem is expanded through gamification mechanisms (such as Launchpad games) and lending products (BOOKUSD), integrating cultural and educational symbols.
Price	$0.001377	$0.002255	$0.006006
Market Cap（$）	1.37 million	2.25 million	1.1 million
Token Holders	1,524	1,131	996

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

On April 16, after tracking the position changes of several smart money addresses, it was found that short strategies still dominate, although the returns on short positions have slightly recovered, and the market remains in a state of wait-and-see and adjustment.

Shorting HYPE continues to be the prevailing trader positioning, with five addresses still holding HYPE shorts totaling over 250,000 tokens. The largest holder, 0xb3e4..., has a floating profit of 800,000 USDT on HYPE shorts with a return of 83%, slightly rebounding compared to yesterday, indicating that a slight short-term price decline is favorable for short positions.

Other addresses, such as 0xccf1... and 0x3c65..., report HYPE short returns of 61% and 69% respectively, still at high levels. Notably, the number of short tokens held by 0xccf1... dropped from 82,879 to 41,379 tokens, possibly representing partial liquidation or position reduction, though a considerable position remains.

In addition to HYPE, shorts in PURR, BNB, and MNT have maintained stable profits with returns ranging from 30% to 200%, overall remaining within a mid-range correction zone. The floating profit on USUAL shorts has rebounded to 70%, ending several days of low-level performance.

WLD and VIRTUAL shorts continue to sustain high profitability at 814% and 215% respectively, but as they are long-term positions, their short-term reference value is lower.

On the other hand, wallet 0xe0cc... still holds no positions today, continuing its series of exits.

Regarding long positions, wallet 0xb3e4... added a significantly sized ETH long position (200 tokens) today, but it is currently showing a floating loss of approximately 8,000 USDT, indicating that the long entry has not yet gained traction. Its BTC long also has a slight loss of over 10,000 USDT. In contrast, the ETH long held by wallet 0xf467... is showing a slight floating profit with an ROE of 161%.

HYPE Smart Money short positions

Address (abbrev.)	4/15 Quantity	4/16 Quantity	Change in quantity	Percentage change	Evaluation
0xb3e4...	137,133	137,133	0	0%	No change
0xf467...	3,992.59	3,992.59	0	0%	No change
0xccf1...	82,879.16	41,379.16	-41,500	-50.1%	Significant position reduction
0x3c65...	53,853.92	33,853.92	-20,000	-37.1%	Position reduction

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Position size	Average cost	Current price	Liquidation price	Unrealized PnL	7-day PnL for the address	Unrealized profit and loss	Address
0xb3e475368ed0fa0ad23c04de0423d48a0758806f (Position unchanged)	HYPE	Short	137,133	2,095,940.77	21.1	15.29	32.41	807,042.54 (83.37%)	-351,317	913,927
	PURR	Short	367,406	34,914.59	0.2908	0.095	6.23	71,938.86 (201.97%)
	BNB	Short	647.02	376,863.27	656.56	582.46	4,544.23	47,998.65 (112.99%)
	MNT	Short	65,000	45,767.8	0.7506	0.7039	37.42	3,037.09 (31.12%)
	ETH	Long	200	319,540	1,636.14	1,596.9	X	-8,029.13 (-49.07%)
	BTC	Long	14	1,173,788	84,686.1	83,803	X	-12,489.48 (-21.07%)
0xe0cc85525563dadd56fdcd96581f7b587a2b2411	No position	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	-24,453	0
0xf467b892ddd18b4449e89fcf02a22f23cbf72d1d (Positions exceeding 10,000)	HYPE	Short	3,992.59	60,982.82	22.07	15.29	74.38	27,080.95 (92.22%)	-36,587	314,474.98
	VIRTUAL	Short	91,460	51,016.39	0.9815	0.5579	3.14	38,689.32 (215.49%)
	WLD	Short	60,000.6	42,971.23	3.86	0.7164	4.84	188,803.22 (814.52%)
	USUAL	Short	149,972.7	19,754.4	0.153	0.1313	1.7	3,241.41 (70.62%)
	ETH	Long	7.1002	11,344.7	1,479	1,597.9	X	846.34 (161.19%)
0xccf135ab352d561a15eb7be2a243cc4fcb7f0ab1	HYPE	Short	41,379.16	631,818.39	19.22	15.27	32.95	162,782.05 (61.42%)	-298,721	163,651.02
0x3c65c137bf380df7f5f61d9318c193b32a344fb0	HYPE	Short	33,853.92	517,423.31	19.89	15.28	21.35	155,976.32 (69.49%)	X	155,976.32

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Beefy （Blockchain：Ethereum） ←→ Tokwn：MIM\|DAI\|USDC\|USDT
Participation Method	From the Beefy official website, navigate to Vaults, connect an Ethereum-compatible wallet, and deposit MIM, DAI, USDC, and USDT into the corresponding liquidity pool to provide liquidity.
Project Information	Beefy: A multi-chain yield optimizer that offers a series of vaults, each with its own compounding strategy. Curve: a liquidity pool on Ethereum. Convex is a DeFi derivatives protocol that allows Curve liquidity providers to earn CRV appreciation without having to lock CRV themselves. Vault information: User funds are combined to create the LP token MIM-3LP3CRV-f and then deposited into Convex to earn yield.
Earnings Details	Staked tokens: MIM, DAI, USDC, and USDT. APY: 13.32% (yield is continuously changing; vault APY is 12.35% plus trading APY at 13.32%).
Product Data	Tokens: MIM, DAI, USDC, and USDT. Total market staking amount for the tokens: 8.79M. Minimum slippage: 0.1%.
Note	MIM is an overcollateralized stablecoin from the Abracadabra protocol. DAI is an overcollateralized stablecoin issued by Sky (originally MakerDAO).

Risk: MIM has previously experienced de-pegging, and in this product, LP accounts for 44.4%, while the remaining 55.24% consists of 3CRV. There is a certain degree of risk involved, so users should invest cautiously and conduct their research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments.

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