BTC drop near $81.8K may trigger mass liquidations

Mainstream data observations

1. BTC core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $81,840 with a liquidation amount of $418 million.Short positions: Liquidation price at $83,424 with a liquidation amount of $169 million. BTC's price is $82,988. The high long liquidation amount indicates a significant proportion of leveraged long positions. A drop near $81,840 could trigger cascading liquidations.

2. ETH core liquidation levels:

Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,808 with a liquidation amount of $156 million.Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,854 with a liquidation amount of $153 million. ETH's price is $1,831. The liquidation levels for longs and shorts are close, with price movements above $1,854 or below $1,808 likely affecting positions.

3. Total stablecoin market cap:  $237.4BThe total market cap remains steady, though USDC issuance has accelerated by $3.705B in the past month, with increases of 43.06% on Arbitrum and 27.64% on Berachain, suggesting notable capital inflows on Berachain.
4. BTC market cap share: 61.41%TOTAL 3 market cap: $775.8B (24h change: +0.63%)This reflects strong market recognition and trust in BTC, with the TOTAL 3 index showing a slight rise.
5. Current miner breakeven price: $53,716However, nearly half of miners have shutdown prices above the current BTC price—for example, the Antminer S19XP shutdown price is $77,384. A further decline in BTC could lead some high-cost miners to cease operations, contributing to short-term volatility.
6. Bitcoin MVRV-Z score:1.70The ratio of minimum market value to realized value has been relatively low over the past four months, suggesting a potential bottom.
7. Bitcoin BVIV score: 53.04From February 3 to March 11, 2024, the BVIV score increased by 96.52% as BTC rose from $43,193 to $72,702—a 68.32% increase indicating a strong upward trend. With tariff data due on April 2, the BVIV score has briefly declined; its movement after the tariff data will be key for further trend analysis.

Market overview

With the April 2 tariff enforcement approaching, both BTC and US stocks experienced significant volatility. BTC fell to $81,250 during pre-market trading and, after US stocks opened—with tech stocks falling sharply (Nvidia down 5%)—panic increased. As oversold technical conditions eased and buying pressure built, BTC rebounded to around $83,000. On the 4-hour BTC chart, no clear uptrend is apparent, and market volatility remains high. The market focus will be on BTC's trend after the tariff policy takes effect on April 2. BTC needs to break through the $92,000 densely-held area; otherwise, there remains a risk of falling to new lows.

Strategy (formerly Microstrategy): Recently, 22,048 BTC were purchased for $1.92 billion, averaging $87,000 per BTC. The company now holds over 528,000 BTC valued at $35.63 billion, with a weighted average cost of $67,458 per BTC. The funds for this BTC purchase mainly came from:

(1) Common stock issuance: As announced on March 31, 2025, about $1.2 billion was raised through the sale of Class A common stock (MSTR) during the purchase period;

(2) Preferred stock issuance: Funds were raised via STRK Perpetual Preferred Stock and STRF series preferred stocks, including an additional $18.5 million through the STRK ATM program and $711.2 million through the public issuance of 10% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock (STRF).

Key events

• US Senator Tommy Tuberville is planning to introduce legislation that will allow Americans to invest their retirement funds in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. This legislation aims to expand investment options for retirement savings.
• Backpack Exchange has launched KAITO/USDT, AAVE/USDT, ENA/USDT, ONDO/USDT, ARB/USDT, DOT/USDT, and FARTCOIN/USDT perpetual contracts, with up to 10x leverage.
• According to Fox, Brian Quintenz, the nominee for chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has begun meeting with Republican Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa to discuss regulating the crypto spot market.
• According to Ember monitoring, a provider of real-time network and device monitoring solutions, Tether has increased its BTC holdings by 8,888 BTC, becoming the sixth-largest BTC wallet address.
• BNB Chain has announced its upcoming Lorentz upgrade to optimize network efficiency, scheduled for April 2025. 
• NFT trading platform X2Y2 is planning to shut down and will close its trading platform on April 30 as the broader NFT market continues to deflate.
• Orderly Network, the full-chain derivatives liquidity layer, has begun a planned upgrade, introducing several significant new products and features.
• Elon Musk clarified that the US government has no intention of adopting Dogecoin, despite rumors triggered by the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$)
	RFC Musk-concept meme	RFC self-identifies as "Retard Finder," parodying speculative behavior in the crypto world through self-deprecation and absurdity. Elon Musk has repeatedly used the term "retard" on X—in responses to critics or in jest—which has gradually popularized the word among right-wing and crypto communities. RFC leverages this to create a meme coin that resonates with Musk’s "fringe culture" image.	10 million
	Buckazoids BTC concept	Buckazoids is inspired by the 1991 release of Space Quest IV. In the game, "Buckazoids" is a fictional currency whose design strikingly resembles Bitcoin’s logo—a circle with a slash. This similarity has sparked widespread discussion in the community, with one of the game developers, Hal Finney—a renowned cryptography pioneer and early Bitcoin adopter—being suspected by many of having ties to Satoshi Nakamoto or being closely related to him.	7.8 million
	Bolt Musk-concept meme	Positioned as Grok’s Dog and connected to the Musk concept, the token has a total supply of 1 billion with no trading tax, and currently, there are over 18,000 on-chain holding addresses.	6.3 million

Exchange updates

• Bitget has launched GUN/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 75x leverage and GUNZ (GUN) spot trading, while Bitget Wallet partnered with Venus to support BNB Chain wealth management and kicked off Super Month’s third-week trading activity with a total prize pool of 22,000 BGB, and Bitget also introduced FUN/USDT and MLN/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 50x leverage.
• Coinbase has listed Doginme (DOGINME) and Keyboard Cat (KEYCAT).
• Bybit will list PumpBTC (PUMP).
• Binance has introduced multiple new features for GUNZ (GUN), including Binance Wealth Management, One-Click Buy, a Flash Trading Platform, leveraged trading, and a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) platform. Additionally, Binance has launched GUN/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 75x leverage and listed FUN/USDT and MLN/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 50x leverage.

Industry landscape

• Crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett has tweeted that the US House Financial Services Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee will hold a hearing on April 9 to discuss the establishment of a federal regulatory framework for digital assets.
• AI infrastructure platform Mahojin has raised a $5 million funding round led by a16z CSX and Maelstrom.
• Artificial intelligence research lab OpenAI has completed a $40 billion funding round led by SoftBank.
• AI blockchain infrastructure company Ambient has raised $7.2 million in seed funding participated in by a16z.
• According to Fortune, stablecoin USDC issuer Circle has hired JPMorgan and Citibank to assist with its initial public offering (IPO) which is expected to publicly file for listing by the end of April.

Emerging projects

Token	House	Buckazoids	4444
Description	The memecoin on Solana is based on the dissatisfaction with the high prices of US real estate, claiming it will shift the purchasing power of US real estate to HOUSE.	Buckazoids on Solana is the first digital currency featuring the Bitcoin logo, first introduced in 1991. The rediscovery of Buckazoids came from a post on Reddit. This is historically the first instance of the Bitcoin logo being found before Bitcoin itself. Therefore, Buckazoids is considered a Bitcoin meme.	The memecoin on BNB Chain is inspired by CZ's favorite number 4, with the coin's address ending in 4444.
Price	$0.004353	$0.007772	$0.002745
Market Cap（$）	4.53 million	7.77 million	2.74 million
Token Holders	5,951	16,728	4,555

Token	Grok	RFC	SYN
Description	The memecoin on Solana is based on the concept of Grok, with images posted by its Twitter account all generated by Grok.	The memecoin on Solana, fully named Retard Finder Coin, is represented by the "Retard" Web 2.0 meme, which recently went viral again after being marked in a reply by Elon Musk.	The AI Agent token on Solana involves multiple AI agents collaborating to generate art, videos, and music.
Price	$0.001966	$0.009335	$0.005016
Market Cap（$）	1.96 million	9.33 million	5.01 million
Token Holders	7,461	8,046	7,094

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	WBTC|HONEY（Blockchain：Berachain） ←→ Token： WBTC|WBERA
Participation Method	From the Berachain official website, access BeraHub, connect a Berachain-compatible wallet, go to the Pools page, and deposit WBTC | WBERA into the corresponding liquidity pool.
Project Information	Berachain: a high-performance, EVM-compatible blockchain built on a proof-of-liquidity consensus. The BeraHub module includes functions such as Swap, Pools, and Vaults.
Earnings Details	Staking currency: WBTC/WBERA Exit fee: 0.3% BGT APR: 37.04% (Returns vary based on the staked token weights and are paid in BGT, Berachain’s governance token. BGT earns a portion of fees from core dApps on Berachain, can be exchanged 1:1 for BERA, and is only obtainable through ecosystem participation. *BERA cannot be exchanged for BGT.) Pool APR: 5.08%
Product Data	Tokens: WBTC/HONEY Total token supply: 53.72M Maximum slippage: 0.50% Current pool liquidity composition: 50% WBTC | 50% WBERA
Note Methods to obtain WBERA	1. Direct swaps are available on the official website; for example, swapping USDT to BERA may incur a 0.2% slippage. 2. Additional yields can be earned via fatBERA Details: Stake BERA on Berachain (withdrawal is currently unsupported) to receive an equivalent amount of fatBERA. Staking fatBERA on the Berachain collaborative staking platform (fatBERA) yields an APR of 4.28% in WBERA. Total staked on fatBERA: 11.24M

Risk: Investors should exercise caution and conduct their own research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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