BTC could aim for $88K if it does not dip below $82K
Mainstream data observations
BTC core liquidation levels
Long positions: Liquidation price at $82,873 with a liquidation amount of $722 million.
Short positions: Liquidation price at $85,599 with a liquidation amount of $279 million.
The current BTC price is $84,464. Long position risk is relatively controllable with liquidation prices concentrated; a level of $82,800 can be considered key support.
ETH core liquidation levels
Long positions: Liquidation price at $1,604.8 with a liquidation amount of $137 million.
Short positions: Liquidation price at $1,648.8 with a liquidation amount of $91.68 million.
The current ETH price is $1,630.1; long position liquidations are intense and concentrated with primary levels around $1,600 and $1,550 that warrant close attention, while short position liquidation risk is relatively controllable with a key level at $1,650.
Total stablecoin market cap: $233.64B.
The total market cap has slightly declined, with Tether decreasing by $209.36M on April 14, USDT on Tron increasing by 1.48% to a record high, and USDT on Ethereum decreasing by 1.16%.
BTC market cap share: 63.44%
TOTAL3 market cap: $769.35B.
BTC market cap share remains moderately high, and due to market dynamics, TOTAL3 market cap has increased. This morning, OM experienced a flash crash with a 24-hour drop of 86.61%, and the RWA sector fell by 44.96% over 24 hours.
Current miner shutdown price: $46,517.42
The proportion of mining equipment operating above the shutdown price has dropped to 35 percent, and mainstream mining equipment currently has a shutdown price of around $60,000, which is a key level to monitor.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.82
The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing the minimum market value (current market cap) by the realized value (the total value of all BTC at the time of their last movement). As BTC prices rise, this index level has also increased.
Bitcoin BVIV score: 57.89%
The BVIV score is slightly above neutral today, indicating that BTC is likely to experience fluctuations; however, the magnitude and momentum of these fluctuations are limited.
[Market rating]
Influenced by Donald Trump’s suspension of tariff policies, the market fear and greed index rose from 25 to 45 on the 12th and 13th, shifting from fearful to neutral, and BTC prices increased accordingly. On April 14, the fear and greed index dropped to 31, indicating fear. Contract liquidations have recently been at historically high levels with high volatility, resulting in cautious market sentiment. BTC has recently completed a relatively complete rebound; should prices decline, a rebound with similar momentum may occur, while if prices rise, attention should focus on whether key resistance levels can be surpassed. BTC's short-term support level lies between 82,000 and 83,000. Looking ahead, attention should be given to Donald Trump's speeches and statements on April 14, as well as the anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in May. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 75, which is neutral.
[Below 50: Bearish; 60–80: Neutral; Above 80: Bullish]
Market overview
BTC has been oscillating around 84,000 over the last weekend, displaying an overall strong performance. This strength is mainly due to the news of tariff exemptions and a rebound in the US stock market. In addition, some insider addresses have been heavily purchasing 0-day call options on the SPX, with abnormal trading volumes observed in these options at the close on both April 9 and April 11. With the support of the US stocks, BTC broke through its recent peak of 83,500. Provided that it does not dip below 82,000, the first target would be 88,000, while the key resistance level above is at 92,000.
Macro overview
On April 14, Donald Trump issued a statement asserting that no one could evade tariff responsibilities, especially China, and emphasized that no tariff exemptions were announced on Friday. This news triggered a pullback in BTC, and Trump later stated that he would deliver an important speech on Monday. From his comments, it appears that the sharp rise in the US 10-year treasury futures yield has indeed softened his stance on tariffs. The yield on the US 10-year treasuries surged by 49.52 basis points, while the yield on the 30-year treasuries increased by 51 basis points, marking the largest jump since at least 2000.
Additionally, the US Treasury’s auction of $5.8 billion in three-year notes performed only passably, with the subscription rate among dealers hitting 20.7%, the lowest level since December 2023.According to Citibank's latest research report, recent US treasury auctions have been lackluster, which has stimulated a substantial increase in treasury yields. Fundamentally, this is due to a reduced demand for US treasuries among domestic investors, who have instead been shifting their funds toward more stable European government bonds.
Moreover, the yield on the US 30-year treasuries is tied to residential mortgage rates, and for every $300 billion worth of bonds sold, the yield is expected to rise by 0.3%. This increase will result in a significant interest expense for both the US government and its residents.
Key events
- Ethereum Foundation Executive Director Tomasz K has shared Ethereum's secondary development goals and vision, including constructing AI agent protocols.
- According to Bitget market data, OM (MANTRA) has dropped 84.32% in the last 24 hours, with the price hitting a low of 0.37 USDT and currently reported at 0.97 USDT.
- Solana-based memecoin release platform Pump.fun has announced that its "Pump Fun" live broadcast function has been launched to 100% of users, equipped with an industry-standard review system and transparent guidelines.
- The Web3 live trading platform Sidekick Protocol has been launched, designed to improve user experience and provide more functionality to traders.
- According to Reuters, US Customs and Border Protection has announced that it will exempt communication equipment, semiconductor devices, and integrated circuits from "reciprocal tariffs."
- Data from TRONSCAN indicates that TRC20-USDT's supply has exceeded 68.7 billion, setting a new record.
- Decentralized protocol Ethena Labs has launched USDe reserve proof and will release proof results weekly.
- Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon has launched the Bitcoin staking function.
- Consumer-grade blockchain Morph has opened the Platinum SBT subscription with a 50% TGE unlock.
- Tokenized gold XAUT performed strongly amid the general market downturn, causing an increase in demand.
- According to Reuters, China's State Council Tariff Commission has announced it will raise tariffs on US imports from 84% to 125 %.
- Cryptocurrency asset manager Grayscale has announced that its future investment products may include APT, ARB, TIA, HBAR, MNT, and TON.
Hot projects
Exchange updates
- WOO X has listed Retard Finder Coin (RFC) spot trading.
- Jupiter co-founder Meow has tweeted that a large number of product and governance concepts will be launched in the coming months.
- Bybit has delisted the PROS/USDT and VIDT/USDT perpetual contracts.
- Bitget Onchain Trading has listed PPPP, MUTUMBO, Wo, and ReFi, while Bitget Wallet has launched the PAXG on-chain gold trading event and introduced the Four.Meme in-house trading feature that supports BNB Chain’s launchpad token. In addition, Bitget has initiated a regular VIP airdrop program for VIP3 and above users. The program features PROMPT as the first project and offers a total prize pool of 150,000 tokens. Bitget has also listed the FHE/USDT perpetual contract that offers up to 20x leverage and launched the third phase of the Early Hunter Airdrop featuring WCT. Bitget PoolX, in collaboration with CandyBomb, has listed Wayfinder (PROMPT) which allows users to contribute to the airdrop through staking or deposits, while Bitget Wallet has partnered with Morph to release a limited-edition SBT that provides token subscription rights and features a prize pool of up to $100,000.
- Binance has listed XCN/USDT and PROMPT/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 25x leverage and announced the results of the second batch of token vote listings including ONDO, BIGTIME, and VIRTUAL.
Industry landscape
- Web3 financial education platform BugsCoin has completed a $12 million Series A funding round, participated in by Becker Ventures.
- US New York lawmaker Clyde Vanel has introduced a legislative bill that would allow state agencies to accept cryptocurrency as a form of payment.
- US New Hampshire House of Representatives has passed its Bitcoin reserve bill HB 639, which is intended to protect Bitcoin self-custody, mining, and node operations.
Emerging projects
Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking
After tracking the positions of multiple smart money addresses on April 14, it was found that the short strategies still dominate the overall layout, but floating profits have significantly declined, and the advantage of short positions is gradually weakening.
HYPE remains the primary short target, with five addresses collectively holding a large number of short positions. However, the floating profit has fallen from its peak to about 50% to 80%. For example, 0xb3e4... still holds about 850,000 USDT in floating profits, but has already given back 670,000, showing that price rebounds are putting pressure on the shorts.
Other short targets like PURR, BNB, and MNT still have profitable short positions, with returns ranging from 30% to 190%, but the overall trend has been stagnant or even slightly declining. USUAL has shown significant losses, being one of the few short positions currently in floating loss.
WLD and VIRTUAL remain the two highest yielding short positions, with ROE exceeding 800% and 200%, respectively. However, these positions are the result of early layouts, and there are no signs of new positions being opened, so their short-term reference value is limited.
On the other hand, 0xe0cc... has completely closed its position, being the only smart money address that has clearly exited the market in this round of tracking, indicating that some funds have chosen to temporarily observe or exit.
On the long side, only a few positions, such as BTC (0xb3e4...) and ETH (0xf467...), are still holding small positions and are currently showing only slight profits, with no large-scale long positions entering the market yet.
Other opportunities
On-chain DeFi mining yield products:
Risk: Users are advised to invest cautiously and conduct their own research.
Disclaimer
The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments.
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