Bitcoin shows gold-like hedging traits amid Trump tirade

Mainstream data observations

BTC core liquidation positions:

Long position: Liquidation price at $84,022 with a liquidation amount of $450 million.  

Short position: Liquidation price at $85,588 with a liquidation amount of $341 million.

The current BTC price: $87,202. The liquidation amount for long positions is larger, with $86,000 serving as an important support level to observe. The liquidation amount for short positions is more concentrated, mainly around $88,200.

ETH core liquidation positions:

Long position: Liquidation price at $1,604.9 with a liquidation amount of $400 million.

Short position: Liquidation price at $1,655.3 with a liquidation amount of $190 million.

The current ETH price: $1,636.7. The liquidation intensity for long positions is large and concentrated, mainly around the $1,600 level. The liquidation amount is substantial and can be observed as a support level.

Total stablecoin market cap: $234.69B

The total market cap has slightly decreased, with overall changes being minimal. USDC issued an additional 1.73 million coins, with a 0.40% increase on Hyperliquid and a 0.40% increase on Polygon.

BTC market cap share: 64.10%

TOTAL3 Market Cap: $774.26B

BTC's market cap share has risen again, now exceeding 64%.

Following BTC's breakthrough of $87,000, the TOTAL3 market cap has slightly increased, with market sentiment warming. All crypto sectors have seen a broad rally, led by AI with a 24-hour increase of 5.19%. The current SOL/ETH exchange rate is 0.0855, up 5.03% over the past week.

Current core miner shutdown price: $71,801

The proportion of miners currently above the shutdown price has decreased to 17%, with the average shutdown price for mainstream mining machines at $72,000. This is an important price level to monitor.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score: 1.80

MVRV is the ratio between the minimum market value (current market value) and the actual value (the total value of all BTC when last moved). The MVRV index has slightly increased, and values above 2 can be considered a bullish signal.

Bitcoin BVIV score: 51.76

The BVIV score reached a low of 48.0 on the 18th and has seen a slight increase. However, the index remains in a relatively neutral and low range, with BTC's price volatility momentum remaining small.

[Market rating]

BTC broke through the key $87,000 level, with BTC and gold both rising together. BTC’s risk-hedging properties have begun to show, and the overall cryptocurrency market has seen a broad rally, improving market sentiment. The next focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and other related data indicators. The current bull/bear sentiment score is 80 (Bullish).

[0-40 Bearish; 40-50 Cautiously Bearish; 50-70 Neutral; 70-80 Cautiously Bullish; 80-100 Bullish]

Market overview

Over the weekend, BTC remained in a transitional phase, with both bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. The contract open interest continued to grow steadily. The bears defended the 85,500 level multiple times and briefly pushed BTC below 84,000. However, the selling pressure decreased, and BTC rebounded. Today, BTC broke through the core resistance level of 86,000 and is now challenging the range of 92,000 to 96,000. If BTC doesn’t fall below 84,000, there is a high probability of a strong upward movement.

Macro overview

Due to the news that Donald Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell, market risk aversion quickly rose. On April 21, gold reached an all-time high of $3,383 per ounce during intraday trading. If Powell is dismissed before his term ends, it would imply the loss of independence in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, potentially leading to further declines in the USD, US stocks, and US bonds. Gold, as a core inflation hedge asset, has become the first choice for market funds. BTC, to some extent, also possesses similar risk-hedging properties, complementing gold, and has shown strong performance recently.

Key events

• ai16z founder Shaw has tweeted that the native token of auto.fun is ai16z. 
• This week, tokens including MRS, VENOM, and MURA will see significant unlock, with a total value of $136.73 million.
• According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has crossed the 86,000 USDT benchmark.
• The open-source MCP technology community SkyAI has announced that it has completed all refunds and SKYAI token airdrops.
• Web3 platform Balance Foundation has released the EPT tokenomics, with 15% of tokens allocated for airdrops and community rewards.
• According to @trenchdiver101, Donald Trump is planning to host a private dinner for TRUMP token holders, suggesting growing interest in politically-linked tokens.
• The Arbitrum ecosystem currency market protocol Dolomite will have its DOLO token generation event (TGE) on April 24, with 20% of DOLO tokens used for retrospective airdrops.
• According to a Binance Research report on April 18, the US Treasury's issuance scale may exceed $31 trillion in 2025, which could affect cryptocurrency market performance.
• According to DefiLlama data, Solana's stablecoin market cap has reached $12.73 billion, setting a new all-time high.
• Base Chain AI Agents creation protocol Virtuals Protocol has launched a new Genesis launch mechanism, turning token launches into proof systems.

Hot projects

Token		Description	Market Cap（$）
	SpongeBot Robot concept meme	SpongeBot is a meme based on the SpongeBob IP, with very little information available on Twitter. Currently, the holding address is 7251, and the trading volume in the last 24 hours is $7.5 million.	8.4 million
	A1 AI concept project	A1lab supports developers with pre-trained AI models that continuously acquire real-time data streams. It provides powerful APIs and SDKs to allow easy integration of AI functionality into dApps. The current holding address is 6274.	6.1 million
	Statrump Trump concept meme	Statrump's IP is inspired by the Statue of Liberty, but with Trump replaced by the Statue of Liberty, satirizing some of Trump's political decisions. The trading volume in the last 24 hours is $6.8 million.	4.7 million
	FAIR3 Strong-performing token	FAIR3 is the native token of the Fair and Free platform, based on blockchain technology. It aims to reshape digital content creation and monetization through decentralization and AI technology, addressing the inequities faced by creators in traditional centralized platforms.	27.53 million

Exchange updates

• Bitget's Chinese head Xie Jiayin tweeted that the VOXEL/USDT contract trading pair on its platform showed abnormal trading volume and price, with some users suspected of market manipulation, while Bitget Onchain has listed tokens such as SKYAI, Wizard, Okintama, Italianrot, DiMA, and CATTLE in the Solana ecosystem, launched the PoolX project BANK for investment, along with BANK/USDT perpetual contracts offering up to 50x leverage, and introduced Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) and Dark Eclipse (DARK).
• AI agent protocol Swarms has launched the Binance MCP server to enable token data analysis and automated trading execution.
• Binance has launched BANK/USDT perpetual contracts with up to 50x leverage, while Binance Alpha and Binance Contracts have launched Balance (EPT), and Binance Wallet has listed the Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) token generation event (TGE).
• According to The Block, the decentralized perpetual contract protocol Hyperliquid holds nearly 70% of the on-chain perpetual contract market share, with a monthly trading volume of $175 billion.
• According to PeckShieldAlert, the attacker's address marked in the decentralized exchange KiloEx attack incident has returned approximately 5.5 million dollars worth of crypto assets to KiloEx.

Industry landscape

• According to state media outlet Belta, Belarus’s National Bank Chairman Roman Golovchenko has stated that the central bank digital currency (CBDC) is expected to enter full circulation by the latter half of 2026.
• According to The Block, Canary Capital has submitted a registration application for the Canary Staking TRX ETF to the US SEC.

Emerging projects

Token	TROLL	Wizard	LUMO
Description	Based on the resurgence narrative of classic internet troll culture, combined with the native meme attributes of the Solana ecosystem, it attempts to establish community consensus through the "OG meme" nostalgic sentiment. The core event is leveraging the revival wave of early internet meme culture and forming a cultural connection with the pumpdotfun platform.	The community-based meme built around the Wizard IP is centered on the collaboration with Alchemy Wizards NFT and the wealth-making effects of the Solana ecosystem. The initiators are anonymous but strengthen community cohesion through high-frequency interactive activities (such as airdrops and market cap target incentives), without reflecting any particular cultural or political background.	LUMO constructs its narrative around AI infrastructure, developing the LumoKit, an AI toolkit for the Solana ecosystem, and strengthening the innovative image of blockchain and AI integration through a technical collaboration with NVIDIA DGX. The core culture lies in empowering developers with tools backed by tech giants.
Price	$0.003359	$0.006299	$0.01388
Market Cap（$）	3.35 million	6.29 million	13.88 million
Token Holders	3,531	8,787	9,630

Token	fitcoin	SKYAI	MAIAR
Description	The positive energy community meme built around fitness culture combines muscle aesthetics with the spirit of cryptocurrency, creating a digital totem for a healthy lifestyle. It conveys the value of persistence and struggle through resonance within the fitness community, while also incorporating a homophone reference to Bitcoin.	SKYAI uses an all-scenario AI ecosystem as its narrative shell, generating market heat through high pre-sale returns (66x) and bulk listings on exchanges. In reality, it relies on community frenzy around new token launches and controversy over the controlling team's market manipulation, creating a meme effect. The core conflict lies in the "BNX team manipulation" background and the market cap management difficulties caused by sniper-style token grabs.	MAIAR builds a plugin-based AI agent framework, integrating the Unix modularity concept with LLM technology to create a developer-friendly tool ecosystem. Its narrative core is driven by a technology geek culture focused on open-source collaboration.
Price	$0.003357	$0.04531	$0.004122
Market Cap（$）	33.57 million	45.31 million	4.12 million
Token Holders	5,371	34,514	5,233

Hyperliquid Smart Money tracking

Recent tracking has revealed that multiple smart money addresses are focusing on short positions, but the overall PnL (Profit and Loss) performance has generally weakened, indicating that short strategies are facing pressure amid the market rebound. For example, address 0xb3…06f has consistently held large HYPE short positions along with other assets, but its PnL in the past week has turned to a loss of 290,000 USDT; similarly, address 0xf4…d1d, which has also been shorting, has lost over 15,000 USDT in the past week, suggesting that even though some positions are still profitable, the short-term performance of the overall portfolio is not as strong as before.

In terms of HYPE short positions, although it remains a core target, the main positions' unrealized gains have been rapidly eroded. The largest position at address 0xb3…06f has seen its return on equity (ROE) reduced to 43.46%, with unrealized gains of about 420,000 USDT, indicating that the rebound in asset prices is putting significant pressure on the short positions. The ROE of another address, 0xf4…d1d, has also decreased to 54%, showing a notable decline compared to the previous day.

Other short positions, such as PURR, BNB, and MNT, although still profitable, have mostly seen their ROE stagnate or decline. Only VIRTUAL and WLD have maintained stable performance, with ROEs around 200% and 790%, respectively.

On the other hand, BTC long positions have shown signs of recovery. Address 0xb3…06f's long positions have turned into unrealized gains, with an ROE of 61%. A newly added address, 0xc7…5bc, has entered BTC long positions with high leverage, and is currently seeing unrealized gains of over 17,000 USDT (ROE 175.04%), making it the best-performing position of the day. This shows that internal market funds are gradually shifting towards long positions.

Address	Trading pair	Long/Short	Token quantity	Position size	Average cost	Unrealized PnL	Last seven days PnL	Unrealized profit and loss
0xb3…06f	HYPE	Short	137,133	2,482,930.1	21.1	420,738.88 (43.46%)	-298,972	552,003
	PURR	Short	35,925.33	37,828.12	0.2908	70,928.12 (199.14%)
	BNB	Short	647.02	388,567.86	656.56	36,475.22 (85.86%)
	MNT	Short	65,000	43,246.45	0.7506	5,544.14 (56.82%)
	BTC	Long	7	611,100	84,686.1	18,367.26 (61.97%)
0xe0…411	No position	X	X	X	X	X	-128,277	0
0xf4…d1d	HYPE	Short	3,992.59	72,178.04	22.07	15,981.55 (54.42%)	-15,196	309,095
	VIRTUAL	Short	91,460	53,798.6	0.9815	35,956.5 (200.27%)
	WLD	Short	60,000.6	47,107.67	3.86	184,687.78 (796.77%)
	USUAL	Short	149,972.7	20,471.27	0.153	2,644.51 (57.62%)
	ETH	Long	7.1002	11,586.11	1,479	1,084.91 (206.63%)
0xcc…ab1	No position	X	X	X	X	X	6,536	0
0x3c…fb0	No position	X	X	X	X	X	-37,409	0
0xc7…5bc	BTC	Long	2.5871	225,653.75	78,103.6	23,579.52 (175.04%)	5,151	23,579

New cryptocurrency valuation comparison (BANK)

In a comparison of BANK, PUMP, BABY, and SOLV, four Bitcoin DeFi projects with TVLs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, we have compiled a comparison table. This includes token unlocking situations, TVL, and funding angles. Compared to similar projects, BANK, the most recently launched project, is currently undervalued by the market.

From the data, BANK is the only token that is fully circulated (100%), while the other three projects have circulating ratios below 30%, meaning a large amount of tokens are still waiting to be unlocked. In terms of fully diluted valuation (FDV), BANK’s current FDV is in line with its market cap, about $18.6 million, whereas the FDV of the other projects is significantly higher than their current market cap, which increases potential valuation pressure.

If we use TVL as the valuation comparison basis, the market cap/TVL ratio of BANK is 0.031, which is relatively low among the four projects; PUMP is 0.099, BABY is 0.062, and SOLV is 0.019. The FDV/TVL comparison yields similar results. These data provide a simple reference: a large funding scale with a low valuation indicates that the token may not yet be fully priced by the capital market, and vice versa.

Finally, in terms of funding background, BABY is the only project that has publicly disclosed a high valuation round (800M) and has participation from top institutions like Paradigm; SOLV comes from ABCDE and Yzi, while PUMP and BANK are both supported by Yzi Labs, though the funding amounts and transparency are relatively limited.

Overall, this table provides an observational perspective: in the absence of strong narratives or backing from well-known VCs, projects like BANK may show relatively low capital pricing, while projects like BABY and SOLV, which are highly sought after, may be overvalued. Whether they are overvalued or undervalued still requires a comprehensive judgment based on fundamentals and market acceptance.

	BANK	PUMP	BABY	SOLV
Market cap	18,614,060	48,498,825	168,780,321	42,105,873
FDV	18,614,060	170,171,314	736,708,049	238,560,189
Circulating ratio	100%	29%	27%	18%
Total fund raised	Not disclosed	10M	96M	22M
Funding background (only the most well-known listed)	Yzi Labs	SevenX Ventures	Paradigm Yzi Labs	ABCDE Capital Yzi Labs
Last round valuation	X	X	800M	200M
TVL	602M	491M	2.72B	2.13B

Other opportunities

On-chain DeFi mining yield products:

Project Name	Merkl（Blockchain：Ethereum） ←→ Token：USDT|ETH
Participation Method	From the Merkl official website, connect your wallet and deposit USDT/ETH to provide liquidity to the Uniswap V4 ETH-USDT product, thus offering liquidity to Uniswap v4.
Project Information	Merkl: A one-stop shop for DeFi investment opportunities. Users can benefit from liquidity pools, lending protocols, and more. Uniswap: A DEX protocol that can be used for providing liquidity and trading.
Earnings Details	Staked tokens: USDT|ETH APR: 118.24% (returns are continuously changing)
Product Data	Current total locked value (TVL): 13.91M 24h trading volume: 21.04M Daily reward pool: 8.197 UNI ($44.51K) Incentive period: 2025.04.15 - 2025.04.29 Current number of participants: 4355

Risks: The current TVL is relatively small, and significant price fluctuations in ETH may impact actual returns. Users are advised to invest cautiously and conduct their own research.

Disclaimer

The development and market cap of stablecoins mentioned in the above content are speculative and based on market analysis at the time of writing and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes. Market conditions can fluctuate widely and unpredictably due to numerous factors such as regulatory changes, market demand, and global economic developments. 

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